Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 10, 2023

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  • The US is set to post the best weekly performance in more than two months triggered by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. The US Dollar Index currently trades at 105.92, posting a 0.86% 5-day move.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed in his speech at the IMF conference in Washington last night that the central bank is willing to raise interest rates again if needed to suppress inflation. Powell also stated, “we will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of overtightening”.
  • Yesterday’s speech showed that their rhetoric needs to stay hawkish until they have seen further improvement on inflation. US CPI is due next week (Tue.) and will be the next key driver for the US Dollar and the market is positioning accordingly.

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  • The UK have just missed the start of a recession in the third quarter, against many estimates. The UK GDP expanded 0.6% in Q3 YoY, vs. 0.5% estimated and it stagnated quarter-on-quarter, the weakest in four quarters, posting 0.0%, but beating the 0.1% contraction expected. This set of growth data gives fresh hope that the UK can dodge a recession but there is a fine line between stagnation and contraction until the end of the year.
  • Sterling advanced on the news to touch 1.2238, but it has corrected most of the move, currently trading at 1.2226. The market keeps looking for reasons to sell sterling and adding that we have US CPI next week, it is unlikely that traders will trade these fresh growth numbers.

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  • The euro keeps treading water against the greenback following hawkish words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leaving the pair below 1.07. EUR/USD dropped as much as 0.39% on Thursday, and we are currently trading at 1.0660’s. Christine Lagarde is due to speak today, as well as other FOMC members but the US CPI next week remains the key focus point.

Economic Calendar

AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Prelim GDP q/q
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
GBP - Prelim Business Investment q/q
EUR - Italian Industrial Production m/m
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
CHF - Gov Board Member Schlegel Speaks
EUR - ECOFIN Meetings
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Logan Speaks
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
USD - Federal Budget Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8732 0.87158
gbp/usd 1.22333 1.22116
gbp/aud 1.92385 1.92011
gbp/nzd 2.07532 2.07115
usd/jpy 151.451 151.221
eur/usd 1.06749 1.06619
gbp/jpy 185.194 184.815
eur/cnh 7.79327 7.7808
usd/cnh 7.30322 7.29291
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15186.1
DOW 33948.2
S&P 500 4353.78
WTI 76.05
GOLD 1955.74

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.