Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 3, 2023

  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep interest rates unchanged in its policy meeting yesterday. The pause was fully priced in, with the benchmark rate remaining at 5.25%, as the central bank falls in line with the Fed and ECB holding rates at the last meeting, suggesting that all three may have reached the peak in rates. Markets are now suggesting that the next move in UK rates will likely be down, however Governor Andrew Bailey insisted that it is “much too early to be thinking about rate cuts.” Bailey continues with the ‘higher for longer’ rhetoric saying that restrictive policy is likely needed for an extended period as the committee continues to battle inflation which remains considerably above the 2% target. October’s CPI inflation print which is due on 15 November will be next key data release and should give markets further clues on whether interest rates have peaked. The pound tried to rally but once again failed to trigger buying interest with GBPUSD continually bumping into stubborn selling interest above 1.22.
  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8The dollar index looks set to record its largest weekly drop in over three months, as markets increase odds that the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes. EURUSD inched higher but seems uncomfortable towards the top of its recent range with markets reluctant to build long positions ahead of key US data later today. Non-farm payrolls are released this afternoon and come after a softer ADP Private payroll release and initial claims which came in a touch higher than expected. Markets are forecasting an October NFP release of 200k, with the unemployment report to come in at 3.8%. This follows a bumper September release at 336k, so markets will pay close attention to any revisions to see if last months hiring surge was temporary.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Bank Holiday
CNY - Caixin Services PMI
NZD - RBNZ Statement of Intent
EUR - German Trade Balance
EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
EUR - French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
GBP - Final Services PMI
EUR - Unemployment Rate
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
CAD - Employment Change
CAD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
USD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Final Services PMI
USD - ISM Services PMI
GBP - MPC Member Haskel Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87128 0.87065
gbp/usd 1.22086 1.21843
gbp/aud 1.898 1.8946
gbp/nzd 2.07076 2.06509
usd/jpy 150.5 150.246
eur/usd 1.06337 1.06147
gbp/jpy 183.507 183.221
eur/cnh 7.78775 7.7741
usd/cnh 7.33079 7.31637
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14885.4
DOW 33879.8
S&P 500 4315.93
WTI 82.76
GOLD 1988.49

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.