The euro is edging higher this Friday against the greenback, but we doubt this move will get past 1.06 given a lot of option strikes expiring at that level. It is important to remember that the Euro outlook remains bearish and should be set to resume its decline the next month as US data will likely give some voice to greenback bulls. Traders will look out for Christine Lagarde’s speech later today and the flash Eurozone CPI, which if it surprises to the downside will reassure markets that the ECB is likely done with its tightening campaign.
US Income and spending gauges for August due today are set to aid the Fed’s confidence about engineering a soft landing. Core PCE and Fed President Jerome Powell’s preferred “supercore” print, probably will come in softer for the third consecutive month but spending and income likely rose at a consistent pace.
The UK economy has proven itself stronger than previously thought, giving an extra boost to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak days before the conservative party starts its campaign. GDP was 2% bigger in the second quarter than estimates, leaving GDP 1.8% above pre-covid levels. The sterling advanced 0.3% against the greenback on the news, and it is currently trading at 1.2238. Against the euro, it is muted.
Marketwatch EU & UK
Daily insights into the latest global market news
Daily Insights
September 29, 2023
Economic Calendar
29 Sep 2023
12:01am:
CNY - Bank Holiday
1:30am:
AUD - Private Sector Credit m/m
5:00am:
JPY - Consumer Confidence
5:00am:
JPY - Housing Starts y/y
6:00am:
EUR - German Import Prices m/m
6:00am:
EUR - German Retail Sales m/m
6:00am:
GBP - Current Account
6:00am:
GBP - Final GDP q/q
6:00am:
GBP - Revised Business Investment q/q
6:45am:
EUR - French Consumer Spending m/m
6:45am:
EUR - French Prelim CPI m/m
7:00am:
CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
7:40am:
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
7:55am:
EUR - German Unemployment Change
8:05am:
EUR - ECB Economic Bulletin
8:30am:
GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
8:30am:
GBP - Mortgage Approvals
8:30am:
GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
9:00am:
EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
9:00am:
EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
9:00am:
EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
12:30pm:
CAD - GDP m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Goods Trade Balance
12:30pm:
USD - Personal Income m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Personal Spending m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
1:45pm:
USD - Chicago PMI
2:00pm:
USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
2:00pm:
USD - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
4:45pm:
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Market Indicators
Currency Pairs
| Pair | High | Low |
| eur/gbp | 0.86593 | 0.86513 |
| gbp/usd | 1.22317 | 1.21959 |
| gbp/aud | 1.9 | 1.89144 |
| gbp/nzd | 2.04651 | 2.03452 |
| usd/jpy | 149.499 | 149.143 |
| eur/usd | 1.0586 | 1.05568 |
| gbp/jpy | 182.668 | 182.197 |
| eur/cnh | 7.72372 | 7.6993 |
| usd/cnh | 7.2987 | 7.2781 |
Equities and Commodities
| Nasdaq 100 | 14759.3 |
| DOW | 33740.8 |
| S&P 500 | 4309.71 |
| BRENT CRUDE | 93.01 |
| WTI | 91.65 |
| GOLD | 1869.21 |
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.
About Francisco Mioludo
Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.
