- The US dollar starts a busy week on solid ground after Friday’s above consensus non-farm Payroll release. The print showed upbeat job creation in November, with 199,000 roles created, above the expected 185k, prompting markets to pare back US rate cut expectations in the first quarter of 2024. The release serves as a timely reminder to markets that Fed cuts are not a certainty next year and come ahead of a busy week of data releases and market events in the coming days.
- Both the ECB and the Bank of England hold their final policy meeting of 2023 this week, with both expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Both central banks are expected to signal that monetary policy once again will need to remain restrictive as they will likely push back on market expectations of early rate cuts in the first half of next year. Tuesday sees the release of UK jobs data for November, where markets will be looking for evidence that wage gains are softening. UK Monthly GDP is out on Wednesday when we look for clues to see if the UK slipped into a downturn in the final quarter of the year.
- Thursday sees the BoE and ECB meeting and whilst little in the way of fireworks are expected, the ECB’s Governing Council will probably discuss a change of timing for winding down its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP).
- Central bank policy meetings will likely grab the headlines this week, and the Fed also hold its final meeting on the year, with another unchanged announcement expected on Wednesday. Ahead of the policy meeting, Tuesday sees the release of the November CPI report, where the headline rate is expected to come in flat for a second straight month. PPI inflation is released on Wednesday, and Thursday sees the release of Retail Sales and jobless claims ahead Empire Manufacturing and Industrial Production on Friday.
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