Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 4, 2023

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  • The month of November ended with a range of data suggesting the US economy is cooling at a fast pace leading to well-known Fed hawks changing their tone into a more dovish one in public remarks.
  • Inflation surprised to the downside, indicating that it is on track to the Fed’s 2% target – Monthly core inflation dropped to 0.2% in October and Annual Core PCE was released at 3.4%, below 3.7% FOMC forecast.
  • Treasuries rallied throughout last week on the soft data, and markets now price a 50% chance of a first rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the US: JOLTS (Tue.); ISM Services (Tue.) is likely to keep cooling in November, but still expanding (greater than 50.0); Unemployment Rate (Fri.) is expected to increase to 4.0%; Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri.) is estimated to improve after the United Auto Workers strike was resolved.

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  • The lack of confidence by investors in the Euro-area recovery is clear with EUR/USD struggling to keep above 1.10 last week, and dropping all the way towards 1.0860, where we currently sit. Last week’s CPI data confirmed that the ECB won’t be able to afford any further interest rate hikes, and the market now expects the central bank to hold and remain cautious, but swap markets expect the first 25 bp cut to be around April next year.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the Euro-area: Germany Industrial Production MoM (Thu.), will offer better insight into the state of the country’s industry and if industrial production is stabilizing in 4Q23.

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  • The Sterling is 0.3% lower against the greenback, trading near 1.2679, after crossing 1.27 on Friday.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the UK: Major industrial train strikes are taking place this week, and on the data front there will not be much apart from PMI data (Tue.).

Economic Calendar

AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
AUD - Company Operating Profits q/q
EUR - German Trade Balance
CHF - CPI m/m
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
GBP - MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
USD - Factory Orders m/m
JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85853 0.85465
gbp/usd 1.27242 1.26671
gbp/aud 1.90674 1.89698
gbp/nzd 2.05027 2.03895
usd/jpy 146.888 146.22
eur/usd 1.0895 1.08658
gbp/jpy 186.52 185.52
eur/cnh 7.77139 7.7444
usd/cnh 7.1438 7.12023
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15940.8
DOW 36187.9
S&P 500 4584.39
WTI 73.43
GOLD 2075.31

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.