Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 13, 2023

  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8We start the week with the US dollar little changed despite concerns of a government shutdown in the coming days. Congress has until the end of the week to pass a new stopgap bill before funding runs out after November 17. This will likely be a busy couple of days for the US, with key inflation data due, as we await the latest CPI release on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday. A dip in the October inflation report is expected, but it remains clear that inflation is still a long way above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping the central bank on a potentially tightening bias despite holding rates at the last policy meeting. Wednesday sees the release of Retail Sales, which are expected to have slowed, driven by a decline in new vehicles and gasoline sales. The Empire Manufacturing Survey is also released on Wednesday, with Initial Claims, Philly Fed Business Outlook, and Industrial Production all out on Thursday.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7This could be a key week for the pound and UK data as markets await the October inflation report on Wednesday, which is expected to decelerate below 5% for the first time in two years. An inline print would ease pressure on both the government and the BoE who kept rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. Tuesday sees the release of the October employment report and Retail Sales are due out on Friday. The pound slipped at the end of last week and 1.22 in GBPUSD remains a pivotal level, with support seen at 1.20 and last week’s high of 1.2425 seen as initial resistance.
  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faThe single currency is treading water, with EURUSD hovering just below 1.07 as markets await Tuesday’s German ZEW report and the final reading of euro area CPI for October, due on Friday. The final update is expected to confirm that underlying price pressures are subsiding, giving the ECB confidence to keep interest rates unchanged.

Economic Calendar

GBP - Rightmove HPI m/m
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks
CAD - Bank Holiday
USD - FOMC Member Cook Speaks
GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
USD - Federal Budget Balance
NZD - FPI m/m
AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87425 0.87278
gbp/usd 1.2244 1.21847
gbp/aud 1.92442 1.91264
gbp/nzd 2.07746 2.0657
usd/jpy 151.799 151.336
eur/usd 1.06974 1.06787
gbp/jpy 185.752 184.475
eur/cnh 7.81606 7.7975
usd/cnh 7.31059 7.2967
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15483.2
DOW 34204.6
S&P 500 4403.75
WTI 76.66
GOLD 1938.85

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.