Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 20, 2023

  • US CPI released last week surprised the market to the downside and other data showing household spending has lost momentum, boosted bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates early 2024 (which many economists consider a policy error). Equity and bond markets rallied, and the US Dollar continued to lose. ┬áThe US Dollar looks set to start the week weaker across the board, with the US Dollar Index losing almost 2% in 5 days.
  • Investors are strongly convinced the Fed is finished with their tightening cycle and that inflation will keep falling towards the central bank goal without a great increase in unemployment.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the US: FOMC Minutes (Tue.), likely to show the dovish tilt that the current FOMC holds; Initial Jobless Claims (Wed.); University of Michigan Sentiment for November (Final) (Wed.) which is due to remain unchanged where year-ahead inflation expectations rise to 4.4% from 4.2% despite lower gasoline prices.

  • In Europe, PMI Surveys will be closely watched for any recession signals with the UK expected to experience a downturn during the winter and the euro-area to dodge one.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the UK: UK Autumn Statement (Wed.), where UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will have little scope to ease fiscal policy, so there will be little for the markets in terms of inflation and growth outlook; UK Flash PMIs (Thu.) expected to remain below the 50.0 level, which represents expansion.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the Euro-area: Euro-area PMIs (Thu.) are estimated to tick higher across Manufacturing, Services, and the Composite from their prior levels; ECB Monetary Policy Account (Thu.) will be closely monitored for any support among policymakers for further tightening.
  • Both the Euro and Sterling rallied against the greenback last week, and today we are higher. EUR/USD gains 0.07% trading comfortably around 1.0920 while GBP/USD gains 0.16%, trading at 1.2480, slowly approaching the 1.25 level.
  • EUR/GBP grinds higher and just reflects what the market is pricing for both regions on the PMIs due to be released this week. We are currently trading at 0.8750 with the next resistance being at 0.8760, where price action was rejected twice last week.

Economic Calendar

1:15am:
CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
1:15am:
CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
7:00am:
EUR - German PPI m/m
11:03am:
EUR - German Buba Monthly Report
2:00pm:
GBP - BOE Quarterly Bulletin
3:00pm:
USD - CB Leading Index m/m
3:30pm:
AUD - CB Leading Index m/m
6:45pm:
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
9:45pm:
NZD - Trade Balance
11:00pm:
AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87606 0.87466
gbp/usd 1.24953 1.2445
gbp/aud 1.91445 1.9035
gbp/nzd 2.08194 2.06942
usd/jpy 149.989 148.685
eur/usd 1.09356 1.08975
gbp/jpy 186.786 185.756
eur/cnh 7.87932 7.8322
usd/cnh 7.22445 7.16605
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15800.3
DOW 34911.2
S&P 500 4509.88
BRENT CRUDE 81.15
WTI 76.7
GOLD 1979.67

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.