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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Mon November 6, 2023

Daily Insights
November 6, 2023

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  • Takeaways from the US last week: The FOMC decided to leave interest rates unchanged ( as expected) for the second straight meeting, between 5.25%-5.5%; Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech after the decision was surprisingly dovish given the surprises in inflation and economic data prior to the meeting (mostly due to seasonality); US Jobs data released on Friday showed a strong cooling – Non-Farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October vs. 180,000 estimate and US unemployment data ticked to a 2-year high of 3.9%.
  • The US Dollar starts the week lower against major peers, continuing last week’s decline, driven by the crash in US Yields and Federal Reserve repricing after the release of US jobs data. Bloomberg Spot Index is lower 0.2%, after falling 0.8% on Friday.
  • On the data front, it will be a quiet week, with only the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (Mon.) and Trade Balance (Tue.) due.

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  • In the euro-area, we will be looking out for Germany’s industrial production (Tue.), where we expected it to remain weak for September and the main driver for the drop in 3Q23 GDP. Eurogroup is schedule to meet in Brussels (Wed.), with discussions around fiscal policy and inflation on the agenda.
  • EUR/USD is steady this morning, trading in the 1.0725-1.0745 range, after advancing last week. EUR/GBP is little changed on the day, trading at 0.8670,

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  • UK Takeaway from last week: The MPC chose to hold their benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, in line with consensus. Although BOE Governor Andrew Bailey left the door open for further interest rates hikes if needed, the upcoming sharp drop in inflation later this month and an economy that is preparing for a recession, should remove any “ideas” of further tightening.
  • Key data this week: 3Q23 GDP (Fri.), where the UK economy likely has contracted due to tighter credit conditions, and it should mark the start of the recession.
  • Cable is trading just under 1.24, after jumping on Friday following US Jobs data.

Economic Calendar

06 Nov 2023
:
AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
:
NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
:
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
:
JPY - BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
:
EUR - German Factory Orders m/m
:
EUR - Spanish Services PMI
:
EUR - Italian Services PMI
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EUR - French Final Services PMI
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EUR - German Final Services PMI
:
EUR - Final Services PMI
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EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
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GBP - Construction PMI
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CAD - Ivey PMI
:
USD - FOMC Member Cook Speaks
:
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
:
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
:
USD - Loan Officer Survey
:
USD - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
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JPY - Average Cash Earnings y/y
:
JPY - Household Spending y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86766 0.86554
gbp/usd 1.23908 1.23598
gbp/aud 1.90295 1.89746
gbp/nzd 2.06686 2.05913
usd/jpy 149.673 149.201
eur/usd 1.07399 1.07186
gbp/jpy 185.342 184.34
eur/cnh 7.82672 7.8101
usd/cnh 7.29295 7.27989
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15121.9
DOW 34105.9
S&P 500 4364.66
BRENT CRUDE 85.49
WTI 81.1
GOLD 1982.91

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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