Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 16, 2023

  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8The US dollar has started the week a touch softer, with the dollar index dipping after gaining last week. Treasury yields are up a little with markets remaining nervous of the geopolitical risk of a ground invasion by Israel, pushing the price of oil higher with Brent trading near USD 91 per barrel after surging over 5% of Friday.
  • Ahead this week we look for further clues on the strength of the US economy, with Retail Sales data out on Tuesday, where sales are expected to have grown 0.2% in September, boosted by Labor day deals. The forward-looking Empire Manufacturing Index is also out and is likely to show that the index weakened in October. Industrial Production data and the Federal Reserve Beige book are also released in the coming days, along with the Philly Fed Business Outlook and weekly jobless claims. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak to the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, when markets will be hanging on his every word, although he is unlikely to give too much away.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7It is a busy week for UK data, kicking off with the release of the September labour market report which is expected to show that private sector wage growth is edging lower, giving some comfort to the BoE. UK CPI inflation is out on Wednesday and markets expect a further easing in September to 6.6% from 6.7%. Retail Sales data for September are released on Friday and may dip as the unseasonably warm weather delayed purchases of autumn and winter clothing. The pound remains under pressure, with support seen at 1.2150 ahead of 1.2105.
  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faThe single currency dropped on Friday against the US dollar, finding some support at 1.05 where it continues to consolidate. The final reading of September euro area CPI inflation is out on Wednesday and is expected to come in unchanged at 4.3%. An inline print should give the ECB more confidence to keep interest rates unchanged at the next policy meeting.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
EUR - German WPI m/m
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
EUR - Trade Balance
EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
CAD - BOC Business Outlook Survey
USD - FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD - Federal Budget Balance
NZD - CPI q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86608 0.86376
gbp/usd 1.21693 1.21233
gbp/aud 1.92787 1.91979
gbp/nzd 2.05951 2.04328
usd/jpy 149.63 149.255
eur/usd 1.0532 1.05012
gbp/jpy 181.903 180.818
eur/cnh 7.7008 7.6786
usd/cnh 7.3146 7.30233
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15055.8
DOW 33722.2
S&P 500 4341.03
WTI 87.43
GOLD 1914.13

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.