Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 23, 2023

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  • A few takeaways from the US last week: Better-than expect data (Retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims) complements the idea of Fed Chairman Powell that the economy is resilient and could require further tightening. But let’s not forget about growth, which is still set to slow, credit availability is diminishing and the tensions in the middle east – all these factors indicate that a hold can be the right choice for the Nov.1 FOMC meeting.
  • The US dollar starts the week higher against its peers, driven by interest rate differentials and as haven flows are unwound as Israel let aid arrive in Gaza over the weekend.
  • Key data this week: S&P PMIs (24 Oct.), New Home Sales (25 Oct.), GDP Annualized QoQ (26 Oct.), Durable Goods Orders (26 Oct.), Initial Jobless Claims (26 Oct.) Persona Income & Spending (27 Oct.).

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  • In the euro-area, monetary policy will be in the spotlight, with the ECB set to hold interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. Latest economic data suggests economic risks are on the rise – weak PMI Surveys and ECB’s Bank lending survey combined with the decrease in credit supply – all these factors point to a risk of a hard landing.
  • Key data this week: Euro-area flash Composite PMI (24 Oct.); Euro-area Money Supply (25 Oct.); ECB Main Refinancing and Deposit Facility rate (26 Oct.)
  • The euro trades around 1.0580, getting back to the bearish channel that it tried to break last week at 1.06.

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  • In the UK, focus will be on the UK unemployment data where signs of further cooling are needed and on the UK Flash Composite PMI, to understand how the economy is coping under tight financial conditions.
  • Key data this week: UK Unemployment rate (3M) (24 Oct.); UK Flash Composite PMI (24 Oct.).
  • Sterling is lower amid view of higher Treasury yields, trading at 1.2164.

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  • Oil is lower as we start the week as Israel halted its ground invasion of Gaza amid diplomatic efforts to the release of more hostages.

Economic Calendar

EUR - German Buba Monthly Report
EUR - Consumer Confidence
AUD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
AUD - Flash Services PMI

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87131 0.87002
gbp/usd 1.21661 1.21442
gbp/aud 1.92736 1.92007
gbp/nzd 2.08925 2.07989
usd/jpy 149.961 149.688
eur/usd 1.05976 1.05731
gbp/jpy 182.319 181.898
eur/cnh 7.76359 7.7445
usd/cnh 7.33319 7.3195
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14601.4
DOW 33165.8
S&P 500 4234.68
WTI 87.12
GOLD 1976.25

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.