Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 30, 2023

  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faCurrency markets are treading water ahead of a busy week of key events and data releases. The single currency trades within a narrow range in the mid 1.05’s as investors wait for German and Spanish inflation data, which will act as an appetizer for tomorrow’s euro area CPI release. Inflation in the euro region is expected to decline in October, thanks largely to favourable base effects from falling energy bills. Markets forecast headline inflation to drop to 3.0% in October from 4.3% in September. GDP data for the euro area is also out on Tuesday, with analysts believing that the region stagnated in the third quarter, with growth coming in flat against the prior reading of 0.2%. EURUSD remains supported at the psychological 1.05 area, with resistance seen at 1.06 ahead of the recent high of 1.0694.


  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7The pound remains under pressure against the US dollar with cable trading just above 1.21 after dipping in the 1.20’s at the end of last week. A breach of support here opens a potential test of the month low of 1.2037, with 1.2150 on the topside seen as initial resistance. The Bank of England meet on Thursday, with the MPC expected to keep rates unchanged for a second straight meeting. The decision will likely be accompanied by a warning from the central bank that further tightening will recommence if signs of inflation return.


  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8It is a busy week for US data, with key labor market releases and a Fed decision in the coming days. Wednesday sees the release of the JOLTs job openings, along with ADP private payrolls, with jobless claims released on Thursday. Friday sees the release of the October Non-farm Payrolls, which is likely to show that September’s surge was temporary. A print of 180k is the consensus, down from last month’s higher than expected release of 336k. The FOMC meet this week, with markets expecting policymakers to keep interest rates on hold for a second consecutive pause. However, Chairman Powell is expected to leave the door open for further hikes if needed.

Economic Calendar

AUD - Retail Sales m/m
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q
GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
GBP - Mortgage Approvals
GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
NZD - Building Consents m/m
JPY - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Prelim Industrial Production m/m
JPY - Retail Sales y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87293 0.86962
gbp/usd 1.21331 1.209
gbp/aud 1.91297 1.90185
gbp/nzd 2.08668 2.07485
usd/jpy 149.813 149.282
eur/usd 1.05703 1.05473
gbp/jpy 181.427 180.765
eur/cnh 7.7508 7.73069
usd/cnh 7.33442 7.32131
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14282.4
DOW 32528.7
S&P 500 4139.87
WTI 84.39
GOLD 1997.27

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.