Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 9, 2023

  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8US unemployment released on Friday jumped significantly in September, stressing the resilience of the labor market, and opening the door for another Fed rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000, the highest this year, unemployment rate held at 3.8% and wages rose at a moderate pace.
  • Two crucial economic prints are due this week – CPI on Thursday and University of Michigan sentiment Survey on Friday. CPI core inflation is expected to tick slightly higher than the Fed’s 2% target and short-term inflation expectations on the U of Michigan’s survey may have been pushed up as gasoline prices are higher.
  • Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting is due on Wednesday, which should provide some guidance for the following Oct. 31- Nov.1 meeting.
  • The greenback starts the week stronger across the board, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gaining 0.2%.
  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faIn the Euro-area, the highlight of the week will be the ECB’s September Monetary policy account to understand how much support is left for any additional monetary tightening. The consensus of the market is that the ECB is not likely to hike rates due to the weakness the economy.
  • Key economic prints in the commons area – Germany Industrial Production MoM on Monday, and Euro-area Industrial Production MoM on Friday where the latter is estimated to have rebounded slightly in August.
  • The Euro is down 0.45% against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.0539 and respecting the downward trend. The Euro is also weighing 57.6% on the DYX Dollar Index movement this morning.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7In The UK, Monthly GDP is expected on Thursday where a modest comeback is expected for August, after a strong contraction the previous month.
  • Sterling is lower this morning, breaking through 1.22 and trading at 1.2180. Next support is seen around 1.2120, 1 week low.
  • oil drum 1f6e2 fe0fflag israel 1f1ee 1f1f1Oil and safe havens start the week higher after Hamas attacked Israel by surprise over the weekend. Oil jumped as supply concerns increase and safe havens like the US dollar, yen and gold gained while US and European futures fell.
  • Israel’s Shekel has dropped 1.6% as the conflict intensifies and the country has stated it will fight until the Hamas’s military infrastructure is dissembled, which will likely require months. The US is due to send several warships to the region.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Bank Holiday
EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
CAD - Bank Holiday
USD - Bank Holiday
USD - FOMC Member Logan Speaks
All - IMF Meetings
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
JPY - Current Account

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86532 0.86378
gbp/usd 1.22246 1.21765
gbp/aud 1.92309 1.91262
gbp/nzd 2.04751 2.03981
usd/jpy 149.24 148.985
eur/usd 1.05744 1.05316
gbp/jpy 182.319 181.662
eur/cnh 7.7327 7.6903
usd/cnh 7.31895 7.28771
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14899.1
DOW 33249.1
S&P 500 4285.49
WTI 85.96
GOLD 1853.51

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.