US unemployment released on Friday jumped significantly in September, stressing the resilience of the labor market, and opening the door for another Fed rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000, the highest this year, unemployment rate held at 3.8% and wages rose at a moderate pace.- Two crucial economic prints are due this week – CPI on Thursday and University of Michigan sentiment Survey on Friday. CPI core inflation is expected to tick slightly higher than the Fed’s 2% target and short-term inflation expectations on the U of Michigan’s survey may have been pushed up as gasoline prices are higher.
- Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting is due on Wednesday, which should provide some guidance for the following Oct. 31- Nov.1 meeting.
- The greenback starts the week stronger across the board, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gaining 0.2%.
In the Euro-area, the highlight of the week will be the ECB’s September Monetary policy account to understand how much support is left for any additional monetary tightening. The consensus of the market is that the ECB is not likely to hike rates due to the weakness the economy.- Key economic prints in the commons area – Germany Industrial Production MoM on Monday, and Euro-area Industrial Production MoM on Friday where the latter is estimated to have rebounded slightly in August.
- The Euro is down 0.45% against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.0539 and respecting the downward trend. The Euro is also weighing 57.6% on the DYX Dollar Index movement this morning.
In The UK, Monthly GDP is expected on Thursday where a modest comeback is expected for August, after a strong contraction the previous month.- Sterling is lower this morning, breaking through 1.22 and trading at 1.2180. Next support is seen around 1.2120, 1 week low.
Oil and safe havens start the week higher after Hamas attacked Israel by surprise over the weekend. Oil jumped as supply concerns increase and safe havens like the US dollar, yen and gold gained while US and European futures fell.- Israel’s Shekel has dropped 1.6% as the conflict intensifies and the country has stated it will fight until the Hamas’s military infrastructure is dissembled, which will likely require months. The US is due to send several warships to the region.
Marketwatch EU & UK
Daily insights into the latest global market news
Daily Insights
October 9, 2023
Economic Calendar
09 Oct 2023
12:00am:
JPY - Bank Holiday
6:00am:
EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
8:30am:
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
12:00pm:
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
12:00pm:
CAD - Bank Holiday
12:00pm:
USD - Bank Holiday
1:00pm:
USD - FOMC Member Logan Speaks
2:15pm:
All - IMF Meetings
4:50pm:
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
8:00pm:
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
11:01pm:
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
11:30pm:
AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
11:50pm:
JPY - Current Account
Market Indicators
Currency Pairs
| Pair | High | Low |
| eur/gbp | 0.86532 | 0.86378 |
| gbp/usd | 1.22246 | 1.21765 |
| gbp/aud | 1.92309 | 1.91262 |
| gbp/nzd | 2.04751 | 2.03981 |
| usd/jpy | 149.24 | 148.985 |
| eur/usd | 1.05744 | 1.05316 |
| gbp/jpy | 182.319 | 181.662 |
| eur/cnh | 7.7327 | 7.6903 |
| usd/cnh | 7.31895 | 7.28771 |
Equities and Commodities
| Nasdaq 100 | 14899.1 |
| DOW | 33249.1 |
| S&P 500 | 4285.49 |
| BRENT CRUDE | 87.48 |
| WTI | 85.96 |
| GOLD | 1853.51 |
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.
About Francisco Mioludo
Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.
