Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
September 25, 2023

The US dollar is little changed from last week as investors prepare for quarter-end flows and a potential US Government shutdown. USD/JPY trades comfortably mid 148-148.50 while EUR/USD continues to edge lower, currently near 1.0650. GBP/USD is muted and sits just above last week’s six months low.

Data prints coming out of Europe this week such as, Euro-area headline and core inflation on Friday are likely to drop below 5% for the first time this year, easing pressure on the European Central Bank and cementing the idea that interest rates have finally peaked in the common area. Headline print (YoY) is estimated at 4.5%, dropping from the previous 5.2% while the Core gauge (YoY) is expected to drop to 4.8%, from the prior 5.3%. Energy and food and core goods contributions to the CPI should be the main drivers of a lower CPI number, as they fall off the picture compared to one year ago where we saw an increase of 4.3% in households’ energy bills for September 2022.

In the UK, Mortgage Approvals data this Friday is set to show that elevated interest rates are continuing to affect the market, with mortgage application expectations to stay below the 10-year average.

FOMC members are well on track for the process of disinflation without causing much damage to the labour market, according to the Summary of Economic Projections. Officials have stated that they are confident of this forecast, even as risks arise (oil prices surging due to supply constraints, UAW strikes and a potential Government shutdown). Jobless claims due on Thursday seem to support the official’s optimism, with consensus being at 215,000 jobless claims last week.

Fed’s optimism is still threatened by this week’s PCE Inflation report for August, due on Friday. Powell’s preferred “super core gauge” – core inflation and core services excluding housing is estimated to have grown at a 0.2% pace, vs. prior 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively)

Have a good week.

Economic Calendar

JPY - BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
EUR - German ifo Business Climate
GBP - CBI Realized Sales
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
EUR - Belgian NBB Business Climate
USD - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
JPY - SPPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87001 0.86675
gbp/usd 1.22493 1.22244
gbp/aud 1.90728 1.89376
gbp/nzd 2.05856 2.04665
usd/jpy 148.482 148.144
eur/usd 1.06554 1.06399
gbp/jpy 181.812 181.265
eur/cnh 7.783 7.7647
usd/cnh 7.3136 7.29057
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14769.7
DOW 34055
S&P 500 4336.01
WTI 90.32
GOLD 1921.52

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.