Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
September 4, 2023

Friday’s Non-farm payroll release points to some easing in labor market conditions, amid signs of moderating demand and rising supply. August’s print came in broadly inline with expectations at 187,000, however a sharp increase in the participation rate to 62.8% and above consensus unemployment rate at 3.8% grabbed the headlines. The US dollar rallied after the data release with EURUSD dropping below 1.08 and GBPUSD briefly dropping below 1.26 and close to support at 1.2550 before rallying. The Japanese yen also lost ground against the resurgent greenback, pushing USDJPY through the 146 level again. The print also triggered a sharp move lower in treasury yields which had been surging in recent sessions.

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed for the labor market holiday. Similarly, we have no significant UK or European data releases in the coming days so markets will likely be influenced by US releases towards the end of the week. Wednesday’s US ISM Services index is expected to come out in line with July’s print at 52.7, following a six-month low in the flash services PMI. We also look forward to the release of the Fed’s Beige Book for further clues on the strength of the US outlook. Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims wraps up the week, with no significant releases on Friday.

Have a good week.

Economic Calendar

AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
AUD - Company Operating Profits q/q
EUR - German Trade Balance
CHF - GDP q/q
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
CAD - Bank Holiday
USD - Bank Holiday
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
JPY - Household Spending y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.856 0.85493
gbp/usd 1.26153 1.2573
gbp/aud 1.95275 1.94245
gbp/nzd 2.11995 2.10869
usd/jpy 146.251 145.951
eur/usd 1.07908 1.07711
gbp/jpy 184.388 183.524
eur/cnh 7.8412 7.82326
usd/cnh 7.25064 6
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15519.2
DOW 34847
S&P 500 4519.24
WTI 85.5
GOLD 1945.68

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.