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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Thu December 7, 2023

Daily Insights
December 7, 2023

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  • US companies started to cut hiring in November, with the private sector reducing employees to the lowest level since 2022, adding further evidence that the job market is cooling. The key focus will now be on Friday’s Payrolls data.
  • Fed Policymakers now head to the final meeting of the year next week and no changes are expected to the federal funds rate.
  • The US Dollar is losing against major peers, with the Dollar Index trading lower at 104 following news out of Japan.

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  • The Yen has rallied against all its peers after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stating that his job may become more challenging after year-end, and markets now bet on a 45% chance that the BOJ will terminate its negative interest rate policy this month.
  • This is the first-time the Governor makes comments that are not related with the need and motives for further easing. The Yen strengthened 1% against the greenback with USD/JPY just breaking through 146, after starting the day above 147.

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  • The euro consolidates mid 1.07-1.08 since yesterday with the ECB dovish tone leading the way. The central bank has finished its tightening policy unless data surprises arise, but markets have now priced 150bps of cuts for the upcoming year. Next Resistance is seen at 1.0920 and next support around 1.0760.

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  • BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey still suggests that interest rate cuts are unlikely for the near future and reassures the need for interest rates to stay higher for longer. Concerns about the stickiness of inflation in the service sectors remain and Bailey expects CPI to be just below 4% by the end of the first quarter of 2024.
  • Cable trades at 1.2579, certainly benefiting from a weaker US Dollar, jumping from today’s low at 1.2546. Big support levels seen between 1.2470-80 and first resistance seen near 1.2750.

Economic Calendar

07 Dec 2023
:
AUD - Goods Trade Balance
:
CNY - Trade Balance
:
CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance
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JPY - 30-y Bond Auction
:
JPY - Leading Indicators
:
CHF - Unemployment Rate
:
EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
:
GBP - Halifax HPI m/m
:
EUR - French Trade Balance
:
CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
:
EUR - Italian Industrial Production m/m
:
EUR - Final Employment Change q/q
:
EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
:
EUR - Revised GDP q/q
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EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
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EUR - French 10-y Bond Auction
:
USD - Challenger Job Cuts y/y
:
CAD - Building Permits m/m
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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CAD - Gov Council Member Gravelle Speaks
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USD - Consumer Credit m/m
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NZD - Manufacturing Sales q/q
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JPY - Average Cash Earnings y/y
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JPY - Household Spending y/y
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JPY - Bank Lending y/y
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JPY - Current Account
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JPY - Final GDP Price Index y/y
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JPY - Final GDP q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85753 0.85652
gbp/usd 1.25867 1.25444
gbp/aud 1.92288 1.91507
gbp/nzd 2.0526 2.04408
usd/jpy 147.184 145.513
eur/usd 1.07828 1.07548
gbp/jpy 184.824 183.092
eur/cnh 7.7256 7.7046
usd/cnh 7.17407 7.15427
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15808.6
DOW 36038.1
S&P 500 4550.97
BRENT CRUDE 74.8
WTI 69.93
GOLD 2030.75

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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