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Minutes of the Sep 19-20 FOMC meeting released last night showed that Fed policymakers agree with policy remaining restrictive for some time. The minutes showed that the committee was more cautious in its outlook than the Summary of Economic Projection suggested. In the FOMC’s upward revisions, the committee was confident that the US economy could achieve a soft landing, whereas the minutes reveal that the Fed is cautious with abroad range of risks that can arise. - All eyes on US CPI due today. Economists expect it to show further easing and if that’s consistent it can support the case for the Fed to be done with rate hikes, lifting US Treasuries, pulling US yields lower along with the USD. But prepare for the upside too as we have seen a few data surprises last week, and as seen on yesterday’s PPI reports, gasoline prices have crept up.
- The US Dollar is weaker across the board as investors wait for the print later today.
ECB minutes are due today and investors will lookout for any clues on the future of the central bank’s monetary policy, and if any tightening is expected ahead.- EUR/USD has picked up the last two days and I can’t help to think this move will be short-lived, specially as we reach an area with a few options strikes from 1.0625 to 1.0635, which will likely be defended.
The UK economy has expanded by 0.2% in August but when revised alongside past months, it will be hard for the economy not to contract in the third quarte- Cable is higher today, touching 1.2330 on GDP data but it will likely trade in a narrow range until we get the US print out later today.
USD/JPY trades around 149 and it is little changed since yesterday.
A state wealth fund in China stepped in to support the stock market, boosting sentiment and driving China’s Government Bond yields to their highest level since May. USD/CNH is muted at 7.2984 and USD/CNY at 7.2993.
Oil prices fell for a third- consecutive day, correcting most of the surge related to the Israel – Hamas conflict.
Marketwatch EU & UK
Daily insights into the latest global market news
Daily Insights
October 12, 2023
Economic Calendar
12 Oct 2023
12:00am:
AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
6:00am:
GBP - GDP m/m
6:00am:
GBP - Construction Output m/m
6:00am:
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
6:00am:
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
6:00am:
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
6:00am:
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
8:30am:
GBP - BOE Credit Conditions Survey
9:00am:
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
9:18am:
CNY - New Loans
9:18am:
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
11:30am:
EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30pm:
USD - Core CPI m/m
12:30pm:
USD - CPI m/m
12:30pm:
USD - CPI y/y
12:30pm:
USD - Unemployment Claims
1:03pm:
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
2:15pm:
All - IMF Meetings
2:30pm:
USD - Natural Gas Storage
3:00pm:
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
5:01pm:
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
6:00pm:
USD - Federal Budget Balance
9:30pm:
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
11:50pm:
JPY - M2 Money Stock y/y
Market Indicators
Currency Pairs
| Pair | High | Low |
| eur/gbp | 0.86322 | 0.86233 |
| gbp/usd | 1.23272 | 1.23106 |
| gbp/aud | 1.92091 | 1.91698 |
| gbp/nzd | 2.05038 | 2.04431 |
| usd/jpy | 149.273 | 149.021 |
| eur/usd | 1.06369 | 1.06199 |
| gbp/jpy | 183.818 | 183.511 |
| eur/cnh | 7.76163 | 7.745 |
| usd/cnh | 7.304 | 7.29197 |
Equities and Commodities
| Nasdaq 100 | 15316 |
| DOW | 33909.2 |
| S&P 500 | 4396.24 |
| BRENT CRUDE | 85.36 |
| WTI | 82.99 |
| GOLD | 1879.75 |
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.
About Francisco Mioludo
Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.
