Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 12, 2023

  •    flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8  Minutes of the Sep 19-20 FOMC meeting released last night showed that Fed policymakers agree with policy remaining restrictive for some time. The minutes showed that the committee was more cautious in its outlook than the Summary of Economic Projection suggested. In the FOMC’s upward revisions, the committee was confident that the US economy could achieve a soft landing, whereas the minutes reveal that the Fed is cautious with abroad range of risks that can arise.
  • All eyes on US CPI due today. Economists expect it to show further easing and if that’s consistent it can support the case for the Fed to be done with rate hikes, lifting US Treasuries, pulling US yields lower along with the USD. But prepare for the upside too as we have seen a few data surprises last week, and as seen on yesterday’s PPI reports, gasoline prices have crept up.
  • The US Dollar is weaker across the board as investors wait for the print later today.
  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faECB minutes are due today and investors will lookout for any clues on the future of the central bank’s monetary policy, and if any tightening is expected ahead.
  • EUR/USD has picked up the last two days and I can’t help to think this move will be short-lived, specially as we reach an area with a few options strikes from 1.0625 to 1.0635, which will likely be defended.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7The UK economy has expanded by 0.2% in August but when revised alongside past months, it will be hard for the economy not to contract in the third quarte
  • Cable is higher today, touching 1.2330 on GDP data but it will likely trade in a narrow range until we get the US print out later today.
  • flag japan 1f1ef 1f1f5USD/JPY trades around 149 and it is little changed since yesterday.
  • flag china 1f1e8 1f1f3A state wealth fund in China stepped in to support the stock market, boosting sentiment and driving China’s Government Bond yields to their highest level since May. USD/CNH is muted at 7.2984 and USD/CNY at 7.2993.
  • oil drum 1f6e2 fe0fOil prices fell for a third- consecutive day, correcting most of the surge related to the Israel – Hamas conflict.

Economic Calendar

AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
GBP - BOE Credit Conditions Survey
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD - Core CPI m/m
USD - CPI m/m
USD - CPI y/y
USD - Unemployment Claims
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
All - IMF Meetings
USD - Natural Gas Storage
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
USD - Federal Budget Balance
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
JPY - M2 Money Stock y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86322 0.86233
gbp/usd 1.23272 1.23106
gbp/aud 1.92091 1.91698
gbp/nzd 2.05038 2.04431
usd/jpy 149.273 149.021
eur/usd 1.06369 1.06199
gbp/jpy 183.818 183.511
eur/cnh 7.76163 7.745
usd/cnh 7.304 7.29197
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15316
DOW 33909.2
S&P 500 4396.24
WTI 82.99
GOLD 1879.75

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.