Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 14, 2023

  • Data released this morning showed that UK wage growth slowed, and job vacancies continued to fall, with the data likely to help to reassure member of the MPC that inflationary pressures in the labour market are subsiding. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.7% in the three months through September, down from a revised 7.9% in the previous period, with private sector regular pay growth slowing to 7.8% from 8.1%. With the UK economy stagnating in Q3, businesses are becoming less willing to employ full time staff even though the talent pool has increased giving potential employers more candidates to choose from. Inflation remains a headache for policymakers and today’s print will help markets believe that interest rates have peaked, suggesting that the next move in interest rates will likely be a cut – although that is unlikely to materialize until the second half of next year. The pound rallied on the news, with GBPUSD currently trading around 1.23 and EURGBP hovering around 0.87.

  • EURUSD is little changed this morning, trading around 1.07 as markets await the release of the eurozone Q3 GDP and the German ZEW survey. We also have several speeches from ECB members later today including Philip Lane the Chief Economist.

  • This afternoon the attention shifts to the US as we await the release of the October CPI inflation report. Markets expect the headline CPI rate to rise just 0.1% vs 0.4% month on month, and 3.3% vs 3.7% year on year as energy prices continue to fall. Whilst a fall of this magnitude would be welcomed by both markets and the FOMC, it remains clear that inflation is still a way off the Fed’s 2% target. This afternoon’s data will be closely monitored and may set the tone for the US dollar in the coming days.

Economic Calendar

12:30am:
AUD - NAB Business Confidence
7:00am:
GBP - Claimant Count Change
7:00am:
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
7:00am:
GBP - Unemployment Rate
7:30am:
CHF - PPI m/m
7:45am:
CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
9:30am:
CAD - Gov Council Member Gravelle Speaks
10:00am:
EUR - Flash Employment Change q/q
10:00am:
EUR - Flash GDP q/q
10:00am:
EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
10:00am:
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
10:30am:
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
11:00am:
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
12:00pm:
GBP - MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
1:30pm:
USD - Core CPI m/m
1:30pm:
USD - CPI m/m
1:30pm:
USD - CPI y/y
1:45pm:
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
3:00pm:
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
5:45pm:
USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
9:45pm:
NZD - Visitor Arrivals m/m
11:50pm:
JPY - Prelim GDP Price Index y/y
11:50pm:
JPY - Prelim GDP q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87184 0.87073
gbp/usd 1.22878 1.22654
gbp/aud 1.9293 1.92252
gbp/nzd 2.0931 2.0863
usd/jpy 151.784 151.612
eur/usd 1.07025 1.06928
gbp/jpy 186.379 186.087
eur/cnh 7.81398 7.7964
usd/cnh 7.30546 7.2849
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15518.1
DOW 34328.9
S&P 500 4415.5
BRENT CRUDE 82.65
WTI 78.46
GOLD 1945.8

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.