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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Tue October 31, 2023

Daily Insights
October 31, 2023

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  • The US dollar fell against all its G10 peers yesterday, as global risk appetite recovered helping to push EURUSD to test resistance at 1.0620. The pair ran into offers to consolidate around 1.06 as the market awaits euro area CPI data this morning. Inflation is expected to take another large step down in October, thanks mostly to favourable base effects from energy bills. A drop to 3.0% in October is forecast, down from 4.3% the previous month and a considerable fall from the peak recorded in October 2022. Both headline and core inflation readings are moving in the right direction and should give the ECB sufficient confidence about the inflation outlook to keep rates on hold in the upcoming meetings.

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  • The pound continues to trade in the mid 1.21’s after once again failing to breach topside resistance and continues to be influenced by the greenback and geopolitics. The pair fell back within its recent range despite the release of data showing that inflation in UK stores fell to the lowest level in more than a year. The BRC reported that shop prices were 5.2% higher in October than a year earlier, down from 6.2% in September – a possible sign that the cost-of-living crisis is starting to ease.

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  • Elsewhere, the Japanese yen fell against the US dollar after the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged it is policy meeting but added some flexibility to its yield control program allowing long term yields to edge higher. The announcement was seen as dovish compared with market expectations and pushed USDJPY to trade at 150.31, the highest level since early September.

Economic Calendar

31 Oct 2023
:
NZD - ANZ Business Confidence
:
GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y
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AUD - Private Sector Credit m/m
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CNY - Manufacturing PMI
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CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI
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JPY - BOJ Outlook Report
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JPY - BOJ Policy Rate
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JPY - Monetary Policy Statement
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JPY - Consumer Confidence
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JPY - Housing Starts y/y
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EUR - French Consumer Spending m/m
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EUR - French Flash GDP q/q
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JPY - BOJ Press Conference
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EUR - German Import Prices m/m
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EUR - German Retail Sales m/m
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CHF - Retail Sales y/y
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EUR - French Prelim CPI m/m
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EUR - Italian Prelim GDP q/q
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EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
:
EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
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EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
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EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
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EUR - Prelim Flash GDP q/q
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EUR - Italian 10-y Bond Auction
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CAD - GDP m/m
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USD - Employment Cost Index q/q
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USD - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
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USD - HPI m/m
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USD - Chicago PMI
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USD - CB Consumer Confidence
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EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
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NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report
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NZD - Employment Change q/q
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NZD - Unemployment Rate
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NZD - Labor Cost Index q/q
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NZD - RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8729 0.87215
gbp/usd 1.21637 1.21367
gbp/aud 1.91434 1.90735
gbp/nzd 2.08473 2.07941
usd/jpy 150.25 149.089
eur/usd 1.06144 1.05905
gbp/jpy 182.513 181.324
eur/cnh 7.77772 7.7562
usd/cnh 7.33114 7.31885
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14251.7
DOW 32869.1
S&P 500 4151.61
BRENT CRUDE 86.79
WTI 82.81
GOLD 1993.28

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.

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