Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
September 12, 2023

Sterling jumped as much as 0.2% to 1.2530 after wage data in July beat estimates but has quickly reversed as expected due to recession concerns, and it is currently trading mid 1.2500-1.2530. USD/JPY holds mid 146-147 and AUD/USD rises but remains below Monday’s high of 0.6449. EUR/USD is muted around 1.0730 after gaining yesterday, which was the pair’s best performance in two weeks. The Bloomberg dollar Spot Index is steady, after dropping 0.7% yesterday.

UK wage growth stills holds at the record high in three months through July, another sign that inflationary pressures remain and that the BOE’s headache is not over yet, leaving the door open for another 25-basis point rate hike in September. Three-month average weekly earnings rose to 8.5% vs. 8.2% estimate and, three-month average unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%, vs. 4.3% estimate.

In addition, average earnings without accounting for bonuses rose 7.8% YoY, rising at one of the fastest paces since 2001. These figures came in after we have seen the UK labour market starting to cool in recent months, a response to a high borrowing cost regime, with unemployment ticking higher to 4.3% and vacancies continuing to fall. However, we believe this is unlikely to stop the BOE from delivering its 15th consecutive hike, especially as today’s data gives support to the hawkish members of the committee.

Economic Calendar

AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
AUD - NAB Business Confidence
EUR - German WPI m/m
GBP - Claimant Count Change
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP - Unemployment Rate
EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
USD - 10-y Bond Auction
NZD - FPI m/m
JPY - BSI Manufacturing Index
JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85987 0.85695
gbp/usd 1.25302 1.25008
gbp/aud 1.94992 1.94374
gbp/nzd 2.12129 2.11326
usd/jpy 146.871 146.436
eur/usd 1.07685 1.07354
gbp/jpy 183.938 183.229
eur/cnh 7.85402 7.83536
usd/cnh 7.30996 7.28789
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15465.2
DOW 34643
S&P 500 4485.84
WTI 87.59
GOLD 1919.19

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.