Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
August 23, 2023

The single currency endured a volatile session yesterday, initially rallying before slipping to find support around 1.0840 as markets await PMI data this morning. EURUSD yesterday hit its lowest level in two months but remains within a tight trading range with markets continuing to be influenced by US yields and China headlines as we await an update from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.

This morning’s euro area composite PMI survey will hopefully provide further clues into the impact of ECB rate increases on the economy. Recent weak manufacturing data and German ZEW survey along with the slowdown felt in China suggest some further softening may be on the cards for the PMI. The ECB remains committed to fighting above target inflation, so a slowdown in growth is unlikely to stop officials from delivering a final 0.25% rate increase at the next policy meeting in September.

UK PMI data is also due out this morning and comes after the last survey plunged in July and is expected to remain at subdued levels this month, suggesting that momentum in the economy continues to suffer as interest rate increases continue to bite. A composite reading of 50.5 for August is the consensus, down from the previous print of 50.8, but still above the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion. Today’s data is unlikely to have a major influence on the pound which continues to tread water against the greenback trading on a 1.27 handle after failing to breach 1.28 yesterday.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - French Flash Services PMI
EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - German Flash Services PMI
EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - Flash Services PMI
All - BRICS Summit
GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP - Flash Services PMI
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
CAD - Retail Sales m/m
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
USD - Flash Services PMI
EUR - Consumer Confidence
USD - New Home Sales
USD - Crude Oil Inventories

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85213 0.8515
gbp/usd 0.78557 0.78396
gbp/aud 1.98242 1.9754
gbp/nzd 2.14395 2.13577
usd/jpy 145.813 145.566
eur/usd 0.9221 0.92051
gbp/jpy 185.813 185.396
eur/cnh 7.92597 7.90677
usd/cnh 7.30737 7.27869
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14981.6
DOW 34380.4
S&P 500 4404.09
WTI 79.64
GOLD 1902.84

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.