Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
August 30, 2023

The single currency dropped below 1.08 yesterday before recovering after softer US data, pushing EURUSD back to the top of its recent range, which is currently capped at 1.09. A lower-than-expected job openings report and dip in US consumer confidence weighed on both treasury yields and the greenback. It is a busy week for the euro, as markets await key inflation data in the coming days, kicking off with German and Spanish CPI later this morning. A mixed bag is expected today with the Spanish print expected to tick up whilst German inflation is looking set to step down a tad in August before dropping more notably next month on falling food and energy prices.

GBPUSD also endured a roller coaster session, dropping to within a whisker of key support at 1.2550 before rallying after the release of the US data to sit on a 1.26 handle once again. Sterling initially stuttered as data showed that first time buyers in the UK are avoiding the property market after a surge in mortgage costs. First time buyer loans slumped by 28% in Q2 compared with the same period last year – the lowest number for the second quarter in a decade, aside from the distortion felt by Covid in 2020.

The attention shifts back to the US this afternoon as we look forward to the release of Q2 GDP data and the ADP Private payrolls report. Markets expect a fall from last month’s stellar ADP release as analysts look for clues on the US labor market ahead of Friday’s Non-farm Payroll print.

Economic Calendar

AUD - CPI y/y
AUD - Building Approvals m/m
AUD - Construction Work Done q/q
JPY - Consumer Confidence
EUR - German Import Prices m/m
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
CHF - Credit Suisse Economic Expectations
GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
GBP - Mortgage Approvals
GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
EUR - Italian 10-y Bond Auction
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
USD - Prelim GDP q/q
USD - Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
USD - Goods Trade Balance
USD - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
USD - Pending Home Sales m/m
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
JPY - Prelim Industrial Production m/m
JPY - Retail Sales y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86096 0.85974
gbp/usd 1.26427 1.26189
gbp/aud 1.95875 1.94783
gbp/nzd 2.12409 2.11722
usd/jpy 146.295 145.855
eur/usd 1.08738 1.08557
gbp/jpy 184.731 184.392
eur/cnh 7.93604 7.9115
usd/cnh 7.30078 7.27783
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15392
DOW 34833.9
S&P 500 4501.22
WTI 81.54
GOLD 1936.15

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.