Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 1, 2023

  • The US dollar ended the month on solid ground with the dollar index rallying for the first day in three, as the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level this year after the BoJ underwhelmed investors who were looking for a more decisive shift in yield curve control. After comfortably breaching the key 150 area, USDJPY traded as high as 151.59 as traders took the central bank’s decision to take a more flexible approach to controlling 10 year yields as dovish. However, markets remain wary of central bank intervention after Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda warned that the MOF is on standby to support the yen if needed.
  • Both the pound and euro made fresh attempts to rally yesterday but both ran out of steam against the solid greenback. EURUSD broke key resistance but fell after rallying to 1.0680 and GBPUSD followed a similar route, rallying to test 1.22 but traders took profit, pushing cable to again consolidate in the mid 1.21’s.
  • The greenback remains in focus this afternoon as we look for further clues on the strength of the US economy and in particular the labor market. The first of a series of employment releases are scheduled this afternoon with the ADP Private payrolls closely followed by the JOLTs jobless report. The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting after European markets have closed and is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged. This would be a second consecutive pause and following the announcement markets will look for further insight from Chairman Powell’s press conference where he is likely to leave the door open for further hikes if required. With just one more policy meeting this year, markets will be wondering if the recent pause will turn into a definitive end to the hiking cycle. Much will hinge on the upcoming labor market and inflation reports in the coming weeks ahead of the December 13 announcement.

Economic Calendar

NZD - RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
AUD - Building Approvals m/m
JPY - Final Manufacturing PMI
CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
AUD - Commodity Prices y/y
GBP - Nationwide HPI m/m
EUR - French Bank Holiday
EUR - Italian Bank Holiday
CHF - Manufacturing PMI
GBP - Final Manufacturing PMI
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
CAD - Manufacturing PMI
USD - Final Manufacturing PMI
USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
USD - JOLTS Job Openings
USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices
USD - Construction Spending m/m
USD - Wards Total Vehicle Sales
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - Federal Funds Rate
USD - FOMC Statement
USD - FOMC Press Conference
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
JPY - Monetary Base y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87123 0.86848
gbp/usd 1.2161 1.21151
gbp/aud 1.9205 1.90451
gbp/nzd 2.09647 2.07771
usd/jpy 151.444 151.084
eur/usd 1.05808 1.05333
gbp/jpy 184.002 183.185
eur/cnh 7.76633 7.7265
usd/cnh 7.34237 7.33102
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 14435.2
DOW 33043.1
S&P 500 4200.28
WTI 83.2
GOLD 1984.47

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.