- The US dollar ended the month on solid ground with the dollar index rallying for the first day in three, as the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level this year after the BoJ underwhelmed investors who were looking for a more decisive shift in yield curve control. After comfortably breaching the key 150 area, USDJPY traded as high as 151.59 as traders took the central bank’s decision to take a more flexible approach to controlling 10 year yields as dovish. However, markets remain wary of central bank intervention after Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda warned that the MOF is on standby to support the yen if needed.
- Both the pound and euro made fresh attempts to rally yesterday but both ran out of steam against the solid greenback. EURUSD broke key resistance but fell after rallying to 1.0680 and GBPUSD followed a similar route, rallying to test 1.22 but traders took profit, pushing cable to again consolidate in the mid 1.21’s.
- The greenback remains in focus this afternoon as we look for further clues on the strength of the US economy and in particular the labor market. The first of a series of employment releases are scheduled this afternoon with the ADP Private payrolls closely followed by the JOLTs jobless report. The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting after European markets have closed and is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged. This would be a second consecutive pause and following the announcement markets will look for further insight from Chairman Powell’s press conference where he is likely to leave the door open for further hikes if required. With just one more policy meeting this year, markets will be wondering if the recent pause will turn into a definitive end to the hiking cycle. Much will hinge on the upcoming labor market and inflation reports in the coming weeks ahead of the December 13 announcement.
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