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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Wed November 15, 2023

Daily Insights
November 15, 2023

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  • The US dollar fell against its G10 peers yesterday following the release of softer than expected inflation data which boosted odds of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. October’s CPI print came in at 4.6% year on year, down from the previous reading of 6.7% and below expectations of 4.7%. The core also beat expectations at 5.7% year on year, against expectations of 5.8% and under the consensus view of 5.8%. Treasury yields and the greenback tumbled, with EURUSD breaching recent stubborn resistance to trade within a whisker of 1.09 with GBPUSD briefly touching 1.25 before consolidating. The attention now shifts to this afternoon’s PPI print as markets look to see if inflation is sufficiently under control to allow the central bank to bring forward a rate cut.

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  • Data released earlier this morning showed that UK inflation fell to a two-year low, strengthening the view that interest rates have peaked. Consumer prices rose 4.6% from a year earlier, down sharply from the previous print of 6.7% and the lowest since 2021. The fall was largely driven by lower energy prices, with gas costs falling by 31% and the cost of electricity dropping by 15.6%. The report will give some comfort to PM Rishi Sunak, allowing him the opportunity to declare victory on his pledge to cut inflation in half. The pound has taken the print in its stride, with cable falling a touch with the pair reacting less to the UK inflation report than it did with yesterday’s US print. Initial support in cable comes in at 1.2430 with resistance seen at yesterday’s high around 1.25.

Economic Calendar

15 Nov 2023
:
AUD - Wage Price Index q/q
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CNY - Industrial Production y/y
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CNY - Retail Sales y/y
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CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
:
EUR - German WPI m/m
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GBP - CPI y/y
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GBP - Core CPI y/y
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GBP - PPI Input m/m
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GBP - PPI Output m/m
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GBP - RPI y/y
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EUR - French Final CPI m/m
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GBP - HPI y/y
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EUR - Industrial Production m/m
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EUR - Trade Balance
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EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
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EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
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CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
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CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
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USD - Core PPI m/m
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USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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USD - PPI m/m
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USD - Retail Sales m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
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USD - Business Inventories m/m
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USD - Crude Oil Inventories
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GBP - MPC Member Haskel Speaks
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JPY - Core Machinery Orders m/m
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JPY - Trade Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87191 0.87
gbp/usd 1.24974 1.24659
gbp/aud 1.92493 1.91666
gbp/nzd 2.08111 2.06812
usd/jpy 150.792 150.44
eur/usd 1.08836 1.08655
gbp/jpy 188.236 187.756
eur/cnh 7.89981 7.8718
usd/cnh 7.26665 7.23474
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15855.5
DOW 34883.2
S&P 500 4506.01
BRENT CRUDE 82.68
WTI 78.52
GOLD 1967.98

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.

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