Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 8, 2023

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  • Federal Reserve officials have stressed since the start of the week the need to get inflation back to its 2% target, with Michelle Bowman saying that she continues to expect further rate hikes to contain persistent inflation. Bond markets now bet on a “dovish pivot” for the seventh time since the central bank started their tightening campaign, with 92 basis points of rate cuts priced in for next year versus the Fed estimate of 50 basis points of easing in 2024.
  • The greenback is little changed this morning after advancing 0.3% on Tuesday, as investors wait for a batch of central bankers’ speeches in Europe throughout the day, and more Federal Reserve officials later this week, including Chairman Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic and John Williams. The Dollar Index trades near 105.70.

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  • The European economy is unlikely to crash according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF stated that the economy’s outlook is aiming for a soft landing, with inflation heading towards its target, and GDP gradually improving. The fund has also warned that stabilizing inflation to its normal range could take several years. EUR/USD dropped 0.1% overnight to trade around 1.0690. EUR/GBP continued its three-day rally, currently hovering the key 0.8700 level.

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  • Sterling is 0.1% lower, currently trading at 1.2270, as UK investors wait for BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey key speech later today.

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  • USD/JPY advanced as much as 0.2% to trade near 150.62 as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that the country’s inflation is still “far-away” from the ideal central bank’s target of 2%.

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  • USD/CNH rose for the fifth consecutive day, heading to its longest gains streak in 4 months. USD/CNH currently trades at 7.2833 and USD/CNY at 7.2790.

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  • Oil is lower this morning, with WTI Crude losing 0.2% as the demand from China, the world’s biggest importer, fades.

Economic Calendar

NZD - Inflation Expectations q/q
JPY - Leading Indicators
EUR - German Final CPI m/m
EUR - French Trade Balance
EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
EUR - Retail Sales m/m
USD - FOMC Member Cook Speaks
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
CAD - Building Permits m/m
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
USD - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
USD - 10-y Bond Auction
CAD - BOC Summary of Deliberations
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
JPY - Bank Lending y/y
JPY - BOJ Summary of Opinions
JPY - Current Account

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.87062 0.87001
gbp/usd 1.22959 1.22715
gbp/aud 1.91248 1.90631
gbp/nzd 2.07297 2.06701
usd/jpy 150.709 150.351
eur/usd 1.06991 1.06806
gbp/jpy 185.039 184.776
eur/cnh 7.78581 7.77073
usd/cnh 7.28383 7.2626
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15287.7
DOW 34136.1
S&P 500 4376.71
WTI 77.2
GOLD 1967.77

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.