Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
September 13, 2023

Sterling consolidated around 1.25 overnight before falling to 1.2453 on negative UK growth data for July released this morning. The euro lost some ground against the greenback, currently trading mid 1.07-1.08, following reports announcing that the ECB expects inflation to remain above 3% next year. USD/JPY continues to grind higher, currently above 147 and AUD/USD falls to hover the 0.64 level.

The UK economy shrank the most in seven months, contracting 0.5% in July, vs. -0.2% estimated by economists and following a 0.5% gain for the month of June. July’s cool and rainy weather held back household spending and strikes among doctors, teachers and rail staff hit the public sector output, causing the nation’s growth to sink.

This is more evidence that the UK economy is slowing down in the face of the current high borrowing costs in place, and it should give the Bank of England policymakers something to digest ahead of the next meeting on the 21St of September and whether to raise interest rates further in their fight against stubborn inflation. Despite BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey having signalled that the central bank is almost complete on one of the most aggressive tightening cycles since the 1980s, money markets still have priced in another quarter-point increase for the BOE, lifting the benchmark rate to 5.5% with the possibility of further increases by year end.

Economic Calendar

GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
EUR - Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - 10-y Bond Auction
EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
USD - Core CPI m/m
USD - CPI m/m
USD - CPI y/y
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
USD - Federal Budget Balance
GBP - RICS House Price Balance
JPY - Core Machinery Orders m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86237 0.86027
gbp/usd 1.25022 1.24528
gbp/aud 1.95041 1.94279
gbp/nzd 2.12009 2.11267
usd/jpy 147.446 147.094
eur/usd 1.07648 1.07386
gbp/jpy 184.234 183.417
eur/cnh 7.85939 7.8217
usd/cnh 7.30586 7.28143
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15275
DOW 34589.6
S&P 500 4457.07
WTI 89.11
GOLD 1909.32

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.