U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls during March were 303k, above the 214k estimate and the biggest monthly change since May of last year. February’s payrolls were revised lower from 275k to 270k. Private Payrolls also exceeded estimates, gaining 232k vs. 170k but were revised lower for February. The Manufacturing segment was the only payrolls underperformer with no change vs. 3k estimate and a lower revision for February.
The U.S. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from February’s 3.9%. M/M and Y/Y Average Hourly Earnings matched estimates, +0.3% and +4.1% respectively.
The U.S. dollar is higher vs. all G10 today, building on momentum from yesterday’s late rally after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated, ‘In March I had jotted down two rate cuts this year if inflation continues to fall back towards our 2% target.’ And ‘If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all.’ Scaling back the probability of Fed rate cuts this year creates an incentive to hold dollars against the backdrop of other central bank easing.
The dollar’s biggest gain is +0.73% vs. the CAD. Canada reported a decline of 2.2k in its Net Change in Employment today vs. an estimated 25.0k gain. Other dollar gains include +0.40% vs. NZD, +0.35% vs. AUD, +0.29% vs. GBP and +0.25% vs. EUR.
USD/MXN is -0.84% today and set a fresh 9-year low at 16.4350. The peso is the best performing major currency this year, +3.13% vs. the dollar.
Gold is hovering near its recent all-time high $2,305.04. Oil has backed away from the day’s high at $87.12/barrel, currently $86.68.
