Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
January 26, 2024

The dollar index continues to trade within its 2-week range with support at 103.00 and resistance at 103.75. At 103.24 the dollar is -0.32% vs. the basket of currencies compared to yesterday’s close and is -0.07% for the week. Yesterday’s strong 4Q GDP data (3.3% vs. 2.0% estimate) and higher-than-forecast Personal Consumption (2.8% vs. 2.5% estimate) lifted the dollar, but those gains are reversed today. For all of January the dollar index is +1.86%.

Today’s dollar losses are led by a -0.54% decline vs. CHF, -0.37% declines vs. SEK, NOK, and CAD, -0.30% vs. GBP, and -0.24% vs. EUR.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher overnight in minor net moves, and are about unchanged for the week, a similar trading pattern to that of the dollar. The 2-year yield is the standout with a gain of 0.049% today and is -0.043% over 7 days.

Market attention remains fully focused on next week’s FOMC rate announcement scheduled for release on Wednesday, Jan 31st at 2pm ET. The expectation is for no change (only a 2.5% probability for a quarter point cut, 40:1 odds). Amateur golfer Nick Dunlap’s win at last week’s American Express PGA Tour against 500:1 odds is a reminder that anything is possible, just unlikely.

Economic Calendar

USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
GBP - GfK Consumer Confidence
USD - Personal Income m/m
EUR - German GfK Consumer Climate
USD - Personal Spending m/m
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Rate
USD - Pending Home Sales m/m
EUR - M3 Money Supply y/y
EUR - Private Loans y/y
EUR - German Buba Monthly Report

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 148.109 147.393
eur/usd 1.08856 1.08128
gbp/usd 1.27583 1.26755
aud/usd 0.66095 0.65761
usd/cad 1.34829 1.34141
eur/gbp 0.85389 0.8525
usd/mxn 17.2187 17.1283
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4892.2
NASDAQ 17449.3
DOW 37992.5
GOLD 2023.21
SILVER 22.79

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.