Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
March 8, 2024

The change in Nonfarm payrolls for February was 275k, above the 200k estimate. Private Payrolls were 223k (165k estimate) and Manufacturing Payrolls were -4k (7k estimate). Initial market enthusiasm for the better-than-expected headline Nonfarm total quickly soured after the full data set for labor had been released.

December’s Nonfarm payrolls were revised from 353k to 229k (down 124k, a 35% revision). It was no better for Private payrolls which were revised from 317k to 177k (-140k or -44%) and Manufacturing which went from 23k to 8k (a 65% revision). The Unemployment rate increased to 3.9% (a two-year high) vs. 3.7% estimate and prior month. Monthly hourly earnings were below estimate and prior month earnings were revised down.

The dollar is lower against all G10 pairs following the payrolls data with markets interpreting a cooling labor market as reason for the Fed to cut rates sooner. Leading dollar declines: -0.79% vs. JPY, -0.56% vs. GBP, -0.49% vs. NZD, -0.41% vs. AUD, -0.10% vs. EUR and -0.05% vs. CAD.

Treasury yields are lower in the mid-tenors, two-year yields leading -0.055%.

Gold is higher for the 8th consecutive day and notched its 4th consecutive all time high, currently at $2,169.29.

Economic Calendar

USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD - President Biden Speaks
CAD - Employment Change
CAD - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Leading Indicators
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
CAD - Capacity Utilization Rate
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
EUR - German PPI m/m
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EUR - French Trade Balance
USD - Unemployment Rate
EUR - Final Employment Change q/q
EUR - Revised GDP q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 148.119 146.479
eur/usd 1.09811 1.09173
gbp/usd 1.28936 1.2801
aud/usd 0.66675 0.6613
usd/cad 1.34653 1.34198
eur/gbp 0.85483 0.85047
usd/mxn 16.8869 16.7631
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5182.61
NASDAQ 18384.1
DOW 38872.9
GOLD 2168.76
SILVER 24.26

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.