Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
May 24, 2024

Tighter for longer. No, that’s not someone admitting losing the waistline battle. That is the Fed’s most recent guidance on its rate policy. Economic data releases for the U.S. continue to come in above expectations, boxing in FOMC officials who have simultaneously ruled out (1) further rate hikes and (2) foreseeable future rate cuts.

Yesterday’s weekly jobless claims were 215k (220k estimate), erasing the 232k print two weeks ago which was seen as a possible first crack in the robust U.S. labor market. And Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI (producer inflation) released yesterday were higher than forecast in all categories.

Today’s Durable Goods Orders for April were +0.7%, opposite the direction of the -0.8% estimate.

The dollar is broadly lower today, down the most in the Scandinavian pairings: -0.85% vs. NOK, -0.53% vs. SEK, -0.35% vs. DKK. Other dollar losses include -0.35% vs. EUR, -0.24% vs. GBP, -0.22% vs. CAD, -0.21% vs. NZD, and -0.18% vs. AUD.

U.S. Treasury yields are climbing as traders adjust holdings to better align with Fed guidance, driving treasury prices lower. The 10-year yield is 4.494%, its highest in two weeks.

Gold traded to a low of $2,326.79 yesterday, a 5% reversal from Monday’s $2,449.89 record high.

Oil prices reached $76.15/barrel today, the lowest in three months and a 13.14% decline from its most recent peak at $87.67/barrel on April 12th.

Economic Calendar

CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
CAD - Retail Sales m/m
EUR - German Final GDP q/q
GBP - Retail Sales m/m
CAD - Corporate Profits q/q
CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
USD - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
All - G7 Meetings
USD - Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 157.144 156.928
eur/usd 1.08537 1.08054
gbp/usd 1.27249 1.26691
aud/usd 0.66203 0.65919
usd/cad 1.37384 1.37076
eur/gbp 0.8532 0.85151
usd/mxn 16.752 16.6768
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5284.5
NASDAQ 18684.1
DOW 39114.9
GOLD 2341.52
SILVER 30.53

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.