Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
April 29, 2024

The USD/JPY traded in a wide range overnight, reaching a high of 160.03 and 154.51 low, a 3.45% variance. Japan’s finance officials rarely comment on specific intervention activity, and true to form MOF Kanda said that if today’s JPY volatility was direct intervention it would not be disclosed until the end of May. The last time the USD/JPY traded at 160.00 was in 1990 and is now +13.45% YTD.

Likely intervention on behalf of the JPY kicks off what could be a volatile week in FX. Along with the usual month-end swings, the economic calendar includes Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday, the FOMC’s rate decision announcement on Wednesday, Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders on Thursday, and Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment on Friday.

The likelihood of a May 1st 25 basis-point cut is currently 2.1%, distant from a 101.0% probability as recently as January.

Fed Funds Futures imply the most likely timing for a rate cut will be at the FOMC’s December 18 meeting, but a hardly convincing 43.5% probability.

The dollar is lower today in all G10 pairs, led by Japanese yen strength. The dollar index is -0.13% at 105.79, near the middle of its most recent 2-week range.

U.S. Treasury yields are slightly lower in lock step with the dollar’s weakness.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Unemployment Rate
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
JPY - Prelim Industrial Production m/m
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
EUR - Italian 10-y Bond Auction
JPY - Retail Sales y/y
GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 160.197 154.499
eur/usd 1.07336 1.06882
gbp/usd 1.25482 1.24397
aud/usd 0.65866 0.65125
usd/cad 1.36696 1.36315
eur/gbp 0.8563 0.85409
usd/mxn 17.2483 17.0608
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5117.64
NASDAQ 17807.4
DOW 38326.5
GOLD 2333.21
SILVER 27.22

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.