Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
April 8, 2024

U.S. Treasury yields have started the week higher, adding to last week’s gains as traders continue to adjust bets in expectation of fewer Fed rate cuts this year. The implied (fed funds futures) year-end Overnight rate is currently 4.694%, suggesting just shy of three full 25 basis-point cuts from the current 5.329%. In January the implied O/N year-end rate was 3.65%, which equated to more than seven 25 basis-point cuts. Recent U.S. economic data has shown a pattern of resurgent inflation, leading Fed officials to reset the FOMC’s rate cut outlook.

Treasury yields are higher primarily in the mid-tenors, the 3-6yr +0.018%.

The U.S. dollar is lower vs. most G10 currencies, the biggest declines against those traditionally tied to commodity exposure: -0.99% vs. SEK, -0.60% vs. NOK, -0.46% vs. AUD and -0.42% vs. NZD. The dollar is also -0.15% vs. EUR, -0.09% vs. GBP and -0.06% vs. CAD.

The spot price of gold marked another all-time high, trading to $2,353.79 today and eclipsing Friday’s record close at $2,329.50.

Today and tomorrow are relatively quiet in terms of economic data releases for the U.S. But that changes with Wednesday’s CPI (consumer inflation) data for March, followed shortly by Thursday’s PPI (producer prices) data.

Economic Calendar

EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
EUR - German Trade Balance
CHF - Unemployment Rate
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks
NZD - NZIER Business Confidence
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 151.941 151.474
eur/usd 1.08534 1.08207
gbp/usd 1.26497 1.26132
aud/usd 0.661 0.65556
usd/cad 1.36165 1.35691
eur/gbp 0.85827 0.85709
usd/mxn 16.4926 16.3478
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5220.94
NASDAQ 18184.1
DOW 38991.2
GOLD 2326.57
SILVER 27.62

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.