Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
February 5, 2024

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out the Fed’s new focus during a 60 Minutes interview (filmed on Thursday, a day after the Fed’s latest rate policy decision and aired Sunday night). Powell’s key statement: ‘we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully’. And further: ‘We think the economy’s in a good place. We think inflation is coming down. We just want to gain a little more confidence that it’s coming down in a sustainable way.’

In the FOMC’s rate policy statement on Wednesday, Fed officials struck a more hawkish tone: ‘The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.’

Powell’s comments are seen by some as a departure from the Fed’s stated policy. And given that Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for January was nearly double the estimate, and Y/Y earnings were clearly inflationary (+4.5% vs. +4.1% estimate), perhaps in hindsight Powell would have stuck more closely to the FOMC script. By the time Powell’s interview aired yesterday it was already dated news.

The dollar is higher today, building on Friday’s gains. The U.S. Dollar Index is +0.44% today and +1.29% since Friday’s payrolls data. The DXY moved effortlessly above the recent 103.75 hurdle, and after some minor resistance at 104.50, dollar bulls are eyeing a move higher to 105.00. The dollar has gained against all major currencies, the biggest advances +0.78% vs. SEK, and +0.62% vs. GBP.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries are higher with even gains near 9 basis points in the mid to long-term (3yr-30yr) tenors. Yield on the 10-year is now 4.122% after touching a 3.815% low last Thursday.

Economic Calendar

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USD - Final Services PMI
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USD - ISM Services PMI
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USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
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AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
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NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
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USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
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AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
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AUD - Goods Trade Balance
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CNY - Caixin Services PMI
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EUR - German Trade Balance
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EUR - Spanish Services PMI
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EUR - Italian Services PMI
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EUR - French Final Services PMI
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EUR - German Final Services PMI
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EUR - Final Services PMI
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EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
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GBP - Final Services PMI
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EUR - PPI m/m
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GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
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USD - Loan Officer Survey
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NZD - Bank Holiday
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JPY - Average Cash Earnings y/y
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JPY - Household Spending y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 148.823 148.264
eur/usd 1.07862 1.07252
gbp/usd 1.26352 1.25271
aud/usd 0.652 0.64735
usd/cad 1.35284 1.34492
eur/gbp 0.85629 0.85146
usd/mxn 17.2793 17.0435
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4928.6
NASDAQ 17541.2
DOW 38278.4
GOLD 2018.47
SILVER 22.3

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.