Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
January 22, 2024

The dollar is evenly mixed vs. the G10 in early trading today. Gains include +0.25% vs. NOK, +0.15% vs. AUD, +0.10% vs. EUR & DKK, and +0.07% vs. CAD. Dollar declines: -0.27% vs. JPY, -0.26% vs. SEK, -0.15% vs. GBP, and -0.01% vs. CHF. The U.S. Dollar Index is -0.03% at 103.24, just below the 100-day moving average at 103.59.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower for the second day but remain in a short-term uptrend started 28 Dec.

Daily ranges in the dollar and Treasuries will likely narrow as the week progresses and traders shift focus to next week’s FOMC 2-day policy meeting. The FOMC’s rate policy statement will be announced on Wednesday, Jan 31st, at 2pm ET. Fed Funds Futures currently imply a 50/50 chance of a quarter point cut, but consensus is traders timing of expected cuts is premature, and the broader market expects no change.

Equities Friday rally has continued into today with all major U.S equity indexes pointing to a higher open. The FOMC’s media blackout began on Saturday so markets are free to trade without concern of unexpected central bank headlines.

The Bank of Canada will announce its first rate decision of the year on Wednesday. Expectation is for no change (10% probability of a quarter-point cut) to the current 5% target rate. Overnight Index Swaps are pricing in nearly a total 1% of cuts by the BoC’s final rate policy meeting in December.

This week’s economic calendar includes Mortgage Applications on Wednesday, Annualized GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Jobless Claims and New Home Sales on Thursday.

Economic Calendar

USD - CB Leading Index m/m
CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
NZD - BusinessNZ Services Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 148.303 147.616
eur/usd 1.09095 1.08799
gbp/usd 1.27316 1.26619
aud/usd 0.66136 0.65768
usd/cad 1.34446 1.34145
eur/gbp 0.85829 0.85549
usd/mxn 17.1097 16.9476
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4858.34
NASDAQ 17404.2
DOW 37990.6
GOLD 2023.58
SILVER 21.98

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.