Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
January 29, 2024

U.S. Treasury yields turned lower overnight, dragging the benchmark 10-year yield 4.091%, the low end of the range since mid-January. The FOMC starts its 2-day meeting tomorrow and will culminate in its rate policy decision on Wednesday. No change is expected to the Fed’s 5.25% – 5.50% overnight target range, but the text of the statement will be scoured for hints of a shift to a more dovish stance, particularly any changes to the Fed’s tightening bias: ‘The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.’

The dollar is evenly mixed in narrow ranges vs. its G-10 counterparts, a replay of the previous few days leading to Wednesday’s rate decision. Dollar gains are concentrated vs. SEK, DKK, NOK, EUR, and GBP. The dollar index is +0.27% at 103.71, approaching the high end of its pre-FOMC range of 103.25/103.75.

Oil spiked to $79.29/barrel following a drone attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan tied to Iran-backed militias but has fallen back to $77.18/barrel and is -1.19% for the day. Widening the Middle East conflict has been supportive of oil prices which traded as low as $67.71/barrel as recently as December 13th.

Aside from the FOMC’s rate decision on Wednesday, this week’s economic data also includes tomorrow’s Consumer Confidence, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change & MBA Mortgage Applications, Thursday’s Jobless Claims, and Friday’s Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods Orders.

Economic Calendar

CNY - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - Loan Officer Survey
JPY - Unemployment Rate

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 148.332 147.709
eur/usd 1.085 1.08136
gbp/usd 1.27188 1.26832
aud/usd 0.66061 0.65694
usd/cad 1.34589 1.34254
eur/gbp 0.85448 0.85132
usd/mxn 17.1879 17.1119
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4893.03
NASDAQ 17439.3
DOW 38094.5
GOLD 2034.77

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.