Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
July 8, 2024

This week’s U.S. economic calendar features testimony from Fed Chairman Powell to the semiannual Senate Banking and Housing (Tuesday) and House Financial Services (Wednesday) committees. Traders will be watching closely for any change to the Fed’s view on inflation and potential shifts in its rate policy timeline. Powell will likely indicate the need to see further evidence of weakening price pressures before lowering interest rates.

Markets are implying a 71% probability of a quarter-point cut at the FOMC’s September policy meeting, a 75% probability at the December meeting, and 64% probability at the January ’25 meeting. The end-of-year implied overnight rate is 4.83%, down from the current implied 5.329%.

The economic calendar also includes release of the latest CPI (consumer inflation) data on Thursday and PPI (producer inflation) on Friday.

Today’s dollar index is -0.04% at 104.83, virtually unchanged from Friday’s close with traders sidelined ahead of Powell and the inflation data. The dollar’s spot returns for today span +0.10% vs. NZD to -0.17% vs. GBP. U.S. Treasury yields have changed little from Friday, also reflective of the pre-data trading pause.

Mexico’s economic calendar includes CPI data on Tuesday, central bank monetary policy minutes on Thursday, and Industrial Production on Friday.

Several key elections continue to dominate the recent news cycle. President Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump a week ago has left November’s Democratic ticket in disarray. Calls from donors for a Biden replacement are increasing daily, but the Biden administration continues to push back forcefully on speculation for any change.

France’s weekend elections gave the most votes to a left-wing coalition but was left short of enough seats to form a government. The stalemate limits the scope of policies that either party can pursue, calming markets which had been concerned over a far-right takeover.

Economic Calendar

GBP - MPC Member Haskel Speaks
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
USD - Consumer Credit m/m
EUR - German Trade Balance
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
JPY - M2 Money Stock y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 161.114 160.259
eur/usd 1.08445 1.07967
gbp/usd 1.284 1.27827
aud/usd 0.67609 0.67306
usd/cad 1.36473 1.36242
eur/gbp 0.846 0.84345
usd/mxn 18.1046 18.022
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5582.11
NASDAQ 20442.6
DOW 39495.2
GOLD 2374.11
SILVER 31.02

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.