Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
March 11, 2024

Currencies are off to a quiet start to the week, recovering from Friday’s Nonfarm payroll volatility and looking ahead to tomorrow’s U.S. CPI data for February. The dollar is stronger vs. most G10 pairs, following through on Friday’s late rally. The widest dollar gains are primarily vs. commodity currencies which are following oil prices lower. Dollar gains: +0.41% vs. NOK, +0.27% vs. SEK & AUD, +0.26% vs. GBP and +0.14% vs. CAD.

Headline M/M CPI is forecast +0.4% (+0.3% prior). Core CPI (excludes food and energy) is forecast +0.3%, down from January’s +0.4% reading. The forecast for Y/Y CPI is +3.1%, and Y/Y Core CPI is forecast to be 3.7% (3.9% previous). Gasoline prices are +20.47% YTD, helping to keep consumer prices elevated.

U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher in the near tenors and the benchmark 10-year yield is +0.008% at 4.0837%.

The FOMC begins its next rate policy meeting next Tuesday and is scheduled to announce its key rate policy on Wednesday, March 20th at 2pm ET. No change is expected to the current 5.50% target rate. Fed Funds futures imply only a 2% probability of a cut next week and a 20% probability for a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed’s May meeting.

Gold prices are higher for the 9th consecutive day, gaining 0.24% since Friday’s close. Gold has gained 10.04% since the yearly low at $1,984.09 on February 14th.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
CHF - SECO Consumer Climate
JPY - BSI Manufacturing Index
JPY - PPI y/y
AUD - RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 147.125 146.485
eur/usd 0.91526 0.91287
gbp/usd 0.77988 0.77672
aud/usd 1.51506 1.50682
usd/cad 1.35084 1.34693
eur/gbp 0.85273 0.84914
usd/mxn 16.8149 16.7457
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5112.75
NASDAQ 17966.9
DOW 38602.4
GOLD 2177.7

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.