The economic calendar has a full schedule this week, with the primary focus on Fed Chairman Powell’s semiannual testimony to a House panel on Wednesday and Senate panel on Thursday. Another key focus will be on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for February, forecast +200k.
Traders have started to hedge with the expectation that Chairman Powell will double down on the Fed’s ‘wait and see’ approach to any rate cuts. A recent string of data has confirmed that inflation remains stubbornly high (and rising in some areas), what ordinary shoppers already knew. U.S. Treasury yields are higher today with the biggest gains in the 2yr- 5yr tenors (+0.06%). Benchmark 10yr yield is +0.041% at 4.224%.
The dollar index is -0.07%, trading near the 200-day moving average at 104.09. The 100-day moving average is close by at 104.55. The close and narrowing proximity of the two averages to each other underscores the historically low volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Today’s dollar losses vs. the G10: -0.33% vs. GBP and -0.22% vs. EUR. Dollar gains include +0.24% vs. NOK & JPY, +0.19% vs. CHF, +0.17% vs. AUD, +0.15% vs. NZD, and +0.06% vs. CAD.
