Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
March 14, 2024

U.S. Producer Prices for February increased 1.6% (biggest increase in 6 months), higher than the 1.2% estimate and a sharp increase from January’s 1.0% pace. All categories of PPI were higher than forecast and 3/5 were higher than January.

February M/M Retail Sales advanced 0.6% (+0.8% estimate), reversing direction from January’s 1.1% decline. Core Retail Sales (excludes automobile and gasoline purchases) were +0.3%, matching the estimate.

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were 209k, below the 218k estimate. The prior week’s claims were revised down to 210k from the 217k originally reported.

Today’s data is consistent with recent trends and underscores an ebullient U.S. economy wracked with persistent inflation. Today’s PPI is the last inflation data Fed officials will see before next week’s rate policy meeting. At its January policy meeting the FOMC shifted its stance on rates to an easing bias.

Spot returns for the dollar had been mixed vs. the G10 currencies prior to the PPI, but now the dollar is higher vs. all G10 and majors. The dollar’s primary gains are +0.48% vs. SEK, +0.26% vs. EUR, +0.21% vs. AUD and +0.20% vs. CHF.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher as well, particularly in the mid/long tenors which have all gained at least 0.05%. The 10-year yield is +0.065% at 4.26%, its highest level this month.

Economic Calendar

USD - Core PPI m/m
GBP - RICS House Price Balance
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
CHF - PPI m/m
USD - PPI m/m
USD - Retail Sales m/m
USD - Unemployment Claims
USD - Business Inventories m/m
USD - Natural Gas Storage
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 147.987 147.526
eur/usd 1.09546 1.0924
gbp/usd 1.28227 1.27794
aud/usd 0.66318 0.66079
usd/cad 1.34811 1.34593
eur/gbp 0.8557 0.85349
usd/mxn 16.7003 16.6445
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5173.71
NASDAQ 18105.2
DOW 39144.9
GOLD 2163.78
SILVER 25.01

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.