Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
April 9, 2024

The dollar is -0.20% today against a basket of currencies, its 5th decline over the past six trading sessions. Resistance at 105.00 proved formidable when the dollar index stalled at 105.019 on April 1st, a near replay from February 13th when the dollar topped out at 104.96. Further dollar weakness should be slowed by support at 103.75 and lower at 103.00.

The USD is lower against all G10, the primary losses vs. NZD (-0.60%) and AUD (-0.47%) as traders adjust positions ahead of tomorrow’s CPI (consumer inflation) data and release of the FOMC’s March 20th meeting minutes. Dollar weakness ahead of tomorrow’s data is supported by the expectation for overall inflation to decline, possibly freeing the Fed to begin its long-awaited rate easing cycle (lower inflation -> lower rates -> lower dollar).

Today’s single economic data release for the U.S. was the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, a normally overlooked data point rated low on the market impact scale. But today’s reading of 88.5 was below the survey estimate of 89.9 and the lowest result since January 2013. The prolonged period of higher borrowing costs continues to take its toll on small business revenues.

The Bank of Canada will announce its latest rate decision tomorrow, with no change expected to the current 5.00% target rate.

Spot gold achieved its 8th consecutive intraday all-time high, reaching $2,365.09 earlier in today’s session. Gold is +14.18% YTD and silver is +18.43% YTD.

Economic Calendar

USD - NFIB Small Business Index
AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
AUD - NAB Business Confidence
JPY - Bank Lending y/y
JPY - Consumer Confidence
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
JPY - PPI y/y
EUR - French Trade Balance
CHF - Gov Board Member Schlegel Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 151.936 151.725
eur/usd 1.08839 1.08474
gbp/usd 1.27034 1.26467
aud/usd 0.66355 0.65969
usd/cad 1.35851 1.35601
eur/gbp 0.85823 0.85648
usd/mxn 16.3555 16.2601
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5227.71
NASDAQ 18215.5
DOW 38988.6
GOLD 2353.13
SILVER 28.11

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.