The dollar is -0.20% today against a basket of currencies, its 5th decline over the past six trading sessions. Resistance at 105.00 proved formidable when the dollar index stalled at 105.019 on April 1st, a near replay from February 13th when the dollar topped out at 104.96. Further dollar weakness should be slowed by support at 103.75 and lower at 103.00.
The USD is lower against all G10, the primary losses vs. NZD (-0.60%) and AUD (-0.47%) as traders adjust positions ahead of tomorrow’s CPI (consumer inflation) data and release of the FOMC’s March 20th meeting minutes. Dollar weakness ahead of tomorrow’s data is supported by the expectation for overall inflation to decline, possibly freeing the Fed to begin its long-awaited rate easing cycle (lower inflation -> lower rates -> lower dollar).
Today’s single economic data release for the U.S. was the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, a normally overlooked data point rated low on the market impact scale. But today’s reading of 88.5 was below the survey estimate of 89.9 and the lowest result since January 2013. The prolonged period of higher borrowing costs continues to take its toll on small business revenues.
The Bank of Canada will announce its latest rate decision tomorrow, with no change expected to the current 5.00% target rate.
Spot gold achieved its 8th consecutive intraday all-time high, reaching $2,365.09 earlier in today’s session. Gold is +14.18% YTD and silver is +18.43% YTD.
