Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
June 4, 2024

The U.S. Dollar Index is higher today, its first gain following three consecutive daily declines. Support at 104.00 prevented further dollar losses. Attention now turns to support at 103.75, where a weekly close below that level will make the dollar vulnerable to additional declines as low as 103.00.

The dollar’s biggest gains are against currencies tied to commodities: +1.16% vs. NOK, +0.63% vs. AUD, +0.39% vs. CAD & MXN and +0.38% vs. SEK.

USDMXN is +4.14% since the weekend’s presidential election.

Recent data pointing to developing U.S. economic weakness and OPEC+ members considering raising production has put swift downward pressure on oil prices, currently -8.61% since last Tuesday. Oil is now +1.70% YTD at $72.82/barrel, distant from its $86.91 2024 high.

Treasuries are higher after today’s JOLTS (job openings) number fueled bets on an accelerated Fed rate cut start. April JOLTS was 8059k, well below the 8350k estimate and the lowest tally of job openings since March of 2021. The weak JOLTS shifts attention to Nonfarm payrolls for May, due for release this coming Friday.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower today in most tenors with the 7-year yield leading the way, -0.049%. Odds of a September cut increased to 59.0% and odds of a December cut climbed to 67.3%.

Traders are anticipating a 25 basis-point cut from the ECB at Thursday’s policy meeting. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 99.5% probable cut.

Economic Calendar

USD - JOLTS Job Openings
USD - Factory Orders m/m
AUD - Company Operating Profits q/q
AUD - Current Account
USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
JPY - 10-y Bond Auction
CHF - CPI m/m
EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - German Unemployment Change
NZD - GDT Price Index
NZD - Overseas Trade Index q/q
JPY - Average Cash Earnings y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 156.485 154.528
eur/usd 1.09159 1.08588
gbp/usd 1.28177 1.27428
aud/usd 0.66987 0.66307
usd/cad 1.36988 1.36203
eur/gbp 0.85249 0.85031
usd/mxn 18.197 17.5406
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5273.64
NASDAQ 18584.6
DOW 38562.2
GOLD 2327.27
SILVER 29.62

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.