Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
May 7, 2024

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls miss (175k jobs added vs. 240k estimate) was enough ‘bad’ economic news to counteract some of the recent positive data and drive U.S. treasury rates lower. Benchmark 10-year yields are -0.126 basis points since payrolls. And the implied probability of a 25 basis-point cut at each of the Fed’s September and December meetings crossed above 50% after dipping to 30% as recently as April 30th. The slight downtick in payrolls likely won’t be enough on its own to accelerate the FOMC’s timeline for cutting the overnight rate, but some see it as the first hint of a cooling U.S. economy.

The U.S. dollar index broke below its recent 150.50/106.50 range following the payroll data, finding new support at 104.50. The DXY was +4.82% YTD through April and is +0.05 today at 105.10.

The dollar’s results vs. the G10 range from a 0.31% gain vs. JPY to a -0.14% slide vs. the EUR.

Treasury yields are lower in all tenors led by a 0.04% drop in the far tenors (15yr-30yr).

The VIX Index (measure of equity volatility equated to investor fear) reached 13.43 today, its lowest point since the end of March. VIX recently peaked at 21.36 on April 19th due to escalating military tension between Iran and Israel. Israel’s incursion into Rafah and Russia’s recent reminder of its nuclear capabilities are not weighing on investor sentiment for now.

This week’s economic calendar includes tomorrow’s Mortgage Applications, Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims, and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment.

Economic Calendar

CAD - Ivey PMI
USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
USD - Consumer Credit m/m
AUD - Cash Rate
AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
AUD - RBA Rate Statement
CAD - Gov Council Member Rogers Speaks
AUD - RBA Press Conference
CHF - Unemployment Rate
EUR - German Factory Orders m/m
EUR - German Trade Balance
GBP - Halifax HPI m/m
EUR - French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q
EUR - French Trade Balance
CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
GBP - Construction PMI
EUR - Retail Sales m/m
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
NZD - GDT Price Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 154.649 153.869
eur/usd 1.07791 1.07541
gbp/usd 1.25707 1.25292
aud/usd 0.66437 0.65865
usd/cad 1.36908 1.36605
eur/gbp 0.85882 0.85716
usd/mxn 16.8942 16.8373
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5191.15
NASDAQ 18096.8
DOW 38924.6
GOLD 2323
SILVER 27.51

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.