Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
April 10, 2024

March CPI data was reported above expectations in all categories.

  • CPI M/M: +0.4% (+0.3% est. ; +0.4% prior month)
  • CPI Ex Food and Energy: +0.4% (+0.3% est.; +0.4% prior)
  • CPI Y/Y: +3.5% (+3.4% est.; +3.2% prior and the highest reading since last September)
  • CPI Ex Food and Energy: +3.8% (+3.7% est.; +3.8% prior)

More evidence of resurgent inflation will likely keep the Fed on hold and traders responded by pricing out the likelihood of a cut at the FOMC’s June 12th meeting. U.S. Treasury yields are sharply higher in all tenors with the 3yr leading +0.223%. The 10yr yield is +0.141% at 4.505%, highest since November’s 4.5323%. Fed Funds Futures now imply only two 25bps cuts this year after pricing in seven 25bps cuts as recently as January.

Higher yields have lifted the dollar, leading to a 0.83% gain in the U.S. Dollar Index to 105.107, its best result since November. The USD is higher vs. all G10/major currencies: +1.42% vs. AUD, +1.16% vs. SEK, +0.98% vs. NOK, +0.97% vs. NZD, +0.85% vs. CHF, +0.83% vs. EUR, +0.77% vs. GBP and +0.57% vs. JPY and CAD.

The dollar’s gain vs. the JPY lifted USD/JPY above 152.00 to reach an intraday high of 152.73 with traders on high alert for potential BoJ intervention.

The Bank of Canada left its overnight target rate unchanged at 5.0% in today’s policy decision.

Attention now turns to tomorrow’s PPI data release with core Y/Y PPI forecast 2.3%, up from the previous 2.0%.

The major U.S. equity indexes are lower, the S&P500 leading losses -0.98%.

Economic Calendar

USD - Core CPI m/m
USD - CPI m/m
NZD - Official Cash Rate
NZD - RBNZ Rate Statement
USD - CPI y/y
EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
CAD - BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD - BOC Rate Statement
CAD - Overnight Rate
CAD - BOC Press Conference
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
CAD - Building Permits m/m
USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
USD - 10-y Bond Auction
USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
USD - Federal Budget Balance
GBP - RICS House Price Balance
JPY - M2 Money Stock y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 152.735 151.68
eur/usd 1.08664 1.07455
gbp/usd 1.27075 1.25594
aud/usd 0.66313 0.65138
usd/cad 1.36779 1.35557
eur/gbp 0.85661 0.85454
usd/mxn 16.4902 16.2904
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5168.16
NASDAQ 18010.9
DOW 38496.8
GOLD 2344.67
SILVER 28.12

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.