Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
April 3, 2024

ADP Employment Change for March was 184k, above the 150k estimate. ADP is the precursor view on labor conditions in the U.S. ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. The two data points aren’t always in sync but today’s higher than expected jobs gains, combined with February’s upwards revision, was enough to lift U.S. treasury yields in anticipation of a strong Nonfarm report on Friday. A resilient labor market is a key focus for the Fed in determining its future rate policy, with rising wage pressures keeping inflation above the Fed’s long-term 2% target.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher in the 6mo-30yr tenors with the far-dated tenors up the most, +0.04%. But despite the higher yields, the U.S. dollar is trending lower today, down vs. 9of10 of the G10 pairs. The biggest dollar declines are -0.58% vs. NOK, -0.49% vs. SEK, -0.32% vs. EUR and -0.23% vs. CAD. The dollar’s lone gain is vs. JPY, +0.14% at 151.82 as speculators continue to test the Bank of Japan’s resolve to defend the JPY above 152.00.

NOK, SEK and CAD gains are correlated to higher crude oil prices which are +0.76% today at $85.80/barrel, the 5th consecutive daily gain and the highest level in 6 months. OPEC+ production cuts now have oil on track to try $88.00 initially, followed by resistance at $90.75, and long-term speculators looking at last September’s high at $95.03.

Economic Calendar

USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
CNY - Caixin Services PMI
USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
USD - Final Services PMI
EUR - Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
USD - ISM Services PMI
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR - Unemployment Rate
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
All - OPEC-JMMC Meetings
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
NZD - Building Consents m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 151.952 151.441
eur/usd 1.08178 1.07638
gbp/usd 1.26096 1.25624
aud/usd 0.65426 0.6503
usd/cad 1.35888 1.35203
eur/gbp 0.85823 0.85568
usd/mxn 16.6198 16.5391
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5228.19
NASDAQ 18198.2
DOW 39289.3
GOLD 2276.81
SILVER 26.71

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.