Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
February 21, 2024

The dollar is mixed after overnight trading with the edge going to dollar weakness. Continued low volatility (currency volatility reached a 2-year low yesterday) limits the range of gains and losses, keeping most pairs rangebound. Top dollar losses are -0.41% vs. ZAR, -0.29% vs. NZD and -0.23% vs. CHF. The dollar index (dollar against a basket of currencies) is -0.06% at 104.02 (just above 104.00 support).

U.S. Treasury yields are lower in the longer tenors, 2-year yield -0.019% and 10-year yield -0.012% respectively.

Recent inflation data has lifted rates in Fed Funds Futures which now imply a Fed overnight target rate of 4.389% by year-end. The implied rate was 3.65% as recently as January 12th, or nearly a 75-basis point shift to higher rates. The minutes from the FOMC’s January 31st meeting will be released today at 2pm ET and will be scoured for any subtle shifts in the Fed’s outlook on rate policy.

U.S. Equity indexes have started the day lower, trading cautiously ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Oil is trading at $77.22/barrel, lower than yesterday’s close at $78.18 and its lowest point in a week. Lower oil is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar which has declined three consecutive days.

Economic Calendar

AUD - Wage Price Index q/q
USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
GBP - Public Sector Net Borrowing
USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
CAD - NHPI m/m
GBP - MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
EUR - Consumer Confidence
NZD - Trade Balance
AUD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
AUD - Flash Services PMI

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 150.186 149.849
eur/usd 1.0819 1.07898
gbp/usd 1.26373 1.26025
aud/usd 0.65732 0.65476
usd/cad 1.3536 1.35048
eur/gbp 0.85668 0.85568
usd/mxn 17.0762 17.0401
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4966.66
NASDAQ 17450.5
DOW 38502.5
GOLD 2029.01
SILVER 23.03

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.