Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
June 5, 2024

ADP Employment Change for May increased 152k, below the 175k estimate. This is the second piece of soft labor data this week after Monday’s JOLTS (U.S. job openings by industry) hit a 3-year low. Keeping the focus on the U.S. labor market, we will see Weekly Jobless Claims tomorrow (220k estimate). Friday’s release of U.S. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls data for May will be the most authoritative view on labor conditions. Payrolls are estimated +185k vs. the +175k previous. The lowest payrolls gain since the COVID rebound was 136k, so any result below that could be THE signal for changing labor conditions.

The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points today as expected, going from 5.00% to 4.75%. Furthermore, the BoC signaled that it was ‘reasonable to expect’ more cuts. Odds of a cut at the BoC’s July meeting now stands at 52%, and 50.4% at the September meeting. The Bank of Canada is the first G-7 country to cut rates. The ECB is expected to deliver its first cut tomorrow.

The dollar is higher today, lifting the U.S. Dollar Index by 0.27%. The dollar’s primary gain is vs. JPY, +0.83%, reversing yesterday’s drop and confirming USDJPY short-term support at 155.00. Other gains for the dollar: +0.35% vs. CHF and +0.26% vs. CAD.

Economic Calendar

USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
AUD - GDP q/q
CAD - Labor Productivity q/q
CNY - Caixin Services PMI
CAD - BOC Rate Statement
CAD - Overnight Rate
EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
USD - Final Services PMI
EUR - Spanish Services PMI
USD - ISM Services PMI
EUR - Italian Services PMI
CAD - BOC Press Conference
EUR - French Final Services PMI
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
EUR - German Final Services PMI
EUR - Final Services PMI
GBP - Final Services PMI
EUR - PPI m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 156.304 155.092
eur/usd 1.08916 1.08598
gbp/usd 1.27951 1.27639
aud/usd 0.66644 0.66271
usd/cad 1.37291 1.36652
eur/gbp 0.85203 0.85034
usd/mxn 17.8304 17.593
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5304.6
NASDAQ 18797.7
DOW 38568
GOLD 2340.24
SILVER 29.55

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.