Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
March 20, 2024

Today is the second day of the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate policy meeting and will culminate with the announcement of its rate policy at 2pm ET. In light of recent hotter-than-expected inflation data the Fed is expected to keep rates steady at its current target rate of 5.50%.

Fed Funds Futures imply a 0.8% probability (not quite zero chance but close enough) of a 0.25% basis-point cut at today’s meeting and only a 10.3% probability of a cut at the May 1st meeting. The year-end implied rate is 4.60%, down from the current 5.329%, suggesting almost three cuts are expected through December.

The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied 1.34% since forming a candlestick ‘hammer’ pattern on March 8th. Support is now at 102.50 and resistance at 105.00. The biggest dollar gains since the March 8th reversal are +3.09% vs. JPY, +2.38% vs. NZD, +1.60% vs. AUD, +1.28% vs. GBP, +0.88% vs. EUR and +0.78% vs. CAD.

The dollar is trending higher today vs. the G10 and most majors with some speculating that the Fed will strike a more dovish tone in today’s rate policy statement.

Gold continues to consolidate gains from its record high $2,194.99/oz from earlier in the month, -1.89% since March 8th and -0.17% today.

Economic Calendar

:
CAD - BOC Summary of Deliberations
:
USD - Federal Funds Rate
:
CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
:
CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
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USD - FOMC Economic Projections
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USD - FOMC Statement
:
USD - FOMC Press Conference
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NZD - GDP q/q
:
EUR - German PPI m/m
:
GBP - CPI y/y
:
GBP - Core CPI y/y
:
GBP - PPI Input m/m
:
GBP - PPI Output m/m
:
GBP - RPI y/y
:
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
:
EUR - Italian Industrial Production m/m
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GBP - HPI y/y
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EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
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AUD - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - Crude Oil Inventories
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EUR - Consumer Confidence
:
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
:
AUD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
AUD - Flash Services PMI
:
JPY - Trade Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 151.785 151.002
eur/usd 1.0872 1.08364
gbp/usd 1.27298 1.26844
aud/usd 0.65411 0.65115
usd/cad 1.36046 1.35685
eur/gbp 0.85574 0.85355
usd/mxn 16.8524 16.7769
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5184.14
NASDAQ 18084.9
DOW 39105.1
GOLD 2154.31
SILVER 24.86

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.