Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
December 8, 2023

Nonfarm Payrolls during November were +199k, outpacing the +185k estimate. Private Payrolls were +150k, below the +159k estimate, and Manufacturing Payrolls were +28k, below the +30k estimate. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.7% from the October 3.9% reading.

The USD strengthened immediately following the payrolls numbers but has since retreated from the day’s highs. Notable dollar gains compared to yesterday’s close: +0.56% vs. GBP, +0.48% vs. EUR, +0.42% vs. AUD, and +0.29% vs. JPY. The dollar index is +0.44% today (at 104.006) and +0.53% for the week.

On Thursday Bank of Japan officials hinted that they could be nearing a shift away from negative interest rates, sparking a JPY rally. USD/JPY experienced an intraday ‘flash-crash’, dropping 1.58% in minutes as long dollar positions were frantically unwound once the pair traded below 144.00, eventually touching a 141.70 low. Yesterday’s high/low range was 3.80%, extraordinary currency volatility.

The U.S. yield curve is higher today following the strong payroll number. The biggest gains are in the near end of the curve: 2y +0.093%, 3y +0.091%, 4y +0.089%, and 5y +0.083%.

Next week’s economic calendar has several key scheduled releases: CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. But the primary focus will be the FOMC’s rate decision announcement on Wednesday at 2pm ET and Fed Chairman Powell’s policy address at 2:30pm ET.

Economic Calendar

CAD - Capacity Utilization Rate
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
EUR - German Final CPI m/m
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EUR - Italian Bank Holiday
USD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
GBP - Consumer Inflation Expectations
EUR - ECOFIN Meetings

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 145.219 142.491
eur/usd 1.08007 1.0723
gbp/usd 1.26014 1.25023
aud/usd 0.66196 0.65579
usd/cad 1.36078 1.3564
eur/gbp 0.85864 0.8564
usd/mxn 17.5191 17.3135
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4574.98
NASDAQ 15936.7
DOW 36050.3
GOLD 2008.42
SILVER 23.34

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.