Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
October 20, 2023

Fed Chairman Powell’s address to the Economic Club of New York yesterday generated outsized market volatility leading to a EUR/USD 30-minute high/low range of 0.57%, GBP/USD range of 0.55%, and USD/MXN range 1.02%. The 10-year UST yield ranged from a low of 4.922% to 4.993% (and closed at 4.991%, a fresh multi-year high).

Currency and treasury markets have since calmed and settled back into recent ranges. Treasury prices are higher today (yields lower) with the biggest gains weighted towards the mid-curve tenors. Fed Funds Futures now imply a 20.3% probability of a Fed rate increase at the December meeting, down from a 34.0% probably only two days ago.

The broader market is in ‘risk-off’ mode today, evidenced by sharply lower global equities, and higher treasury, oil, and gold prices. The possibility of Israel’s war with Hamas spreading to a wider regional Middle East conflict is leading the shift to safe assets.

The U.S. dollar index basket is -0.05%, reflecting the dollar’s even split of gains and losses against the major pairings. The dollar’s primary gains are +0.38% vs. NOK, and +0.22% vs. NZD. Declines are -0.31% vs. CAD, and -0.08% vs. EUR & GBP.

Economic Calendar

CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
CAD - Retail Sales m/m
USD - FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD - Federal Budget Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 149.993 149.607
eur/usd 1.05988 1.05648
gbp/usd 1.21611 1.2093
aud/usd 0.63247 0.6297
usd/cad 1.37339 1.36696
eur/gbp 0.87404 0.87081
usd/mxn 18.4653 18.2614
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4266.57
NASDAQ 14737.2
DOW 33317.6
GOLD 1977.58
SILVER 23.09

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.