Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
October 27, 2023

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is +0.03% today and is set to close the week +0.44%. The modest gain obscures the dollar’s volatility earlier in the week which widened the high/low range to 1.44%. Support is at 105.50 and resistance at 107.50. Momentum favors additional dollar gains with some projections as high as 109.25.

The dollar is mixed vs. the G10, gaining 0.22% vs. CHF but -0.47% vs. AUD and -0.37% vs. JPY. Widening the scope to include all majors, the dollar is significantly lower when paired against emerging market currencies: -0.97% vs. ZAR, -0.86% vs. BRL, and -0.74% vs. MXN. The shift away from the dollar is also seen in Bitcoin which surged 14.32% this week and is +25.47% over two weeks.

Economic data released today: Personal Income +0.3%, est. +0.4%; Personal Spending +0.7%, est. +0.5% estimate, +0.4% previous month. The increase in personal spending is consistent with this week’s Durable Goods Orders (+4.7%) and Retail Sales (+0.7%). Despite wages trending lower and high inflation, consumers continue to spend.

U.S Treasury prices are mixed with modest gains in the short-term tenors and declines in the 9yr-30yr tenors.

Equities have had a rough week with the S&P500 Index -2.06% and Nasdaq -2.15% respectively. Today will complete the 3rd consecutive weekly loss for these indexes.

Next Wednesday the FOMC will announce its latest rate policy decision. No change is expected with Fed Funds Futures implying an almost 0% chance (1.6%) of a 25 basis-point hike.

Economic Calendar

USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
AUD - PPI q/q
USD - Personal Income m/m
USD - Personal Spending m/m
EUR - Spanish Flash GDP q/q
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
EUR - Euro Summit
USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 150.411 149.724
eur/usd 1.05766 1.05352
gbp/usd 1.2105 13
aud/usd 0.63597 0.63243
usd/cad 1.38356 1.37959
eur/gbp 0.87161 0.86955
usd/mxn 18.1765 18.0029
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4156.63
NASDAQ 14234
DOW 32796.7
GOLD 1979.72
SILVER 22.75

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.