Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
August 28, 2023

Dollar bulls tried to breach Dollar Index resistance at 104.50 on Friday but came up short, trading to an intraday high of 104.447 (still the highest point for the dollar since June 1st). Profit-taking left the DXY at 104.077 to close out the week with a 0.68% gain, and the dollar’s 6th consecutive weekly advance.

The USD is lower today in directionless trading. Today’s Summer Bank holiday in the U.K. has reduced the usual daily turnover, limiting liquidity. The primary dollar moves are -0.52% vs. SEK and -0.23% vs. AUD.

U.S. Treasuries have started to make a move since the NY market open, with lower yields seen across most tenors, but centering around the 10-year which is -0.037%. Following the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium last weekend, the probability of a 25-basis point hike at the FOMC’s November meeting has risen to 44.8% probable. The message that rates will need to stay elevated for longer than previously projected is being priced into markets.

This week’s U.S. economic calendar includes tomorrow’s Consumer Confidence, Annualized Quarterly GDP on Wednesday, Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday, and culminating with Friday’s Change in Nonfarm Payrolls. Canadian economic data centers on Friday’s Annualized Quarterly GDP, GDP MoM, GDP YoY, and Manufacturing PMI. Mexico will also see GDP data results (tomorrow), Unemployment for July, and Manufacturing PMI due out on Friday.

Economic Calendar

GBP - Bank Holiday
AUD - Retail Sales m/m
EUR - M3 Money Supply y/y
EUR - Private Loans y/y
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
CNY - CB Leading Index m/m
GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y
JPY - Unemployment Rate

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 146.682 146.273
eur/usd 1.08222 1.07933
gbp/usd 1.26105 1.25652
aud/usd 0.64397 0.63945
usd/cad 1.36114 1.35699
eur/gbp 0.85987 0.85616
usd/mxn 16.7486 16.6929
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4421.88
NASDAQ 14986.3
DOW 34509.5
GOLD 1919.99
SILVER 24.31

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.